By SUZANNE DOWNING
Oct. 3, 2026 – A new Alaska Senate poll gives Sen. Dan Sullivan a slight advantage over Mary Peltola. It is a small edge, well within the survey’s margin of error. But for Republicans watching a race that could help determine control of the US Senate, it is an encouraging number, after other polls put Peltola in the lead.
The Quantus Insights survey of 758 likely voters puts Sullivan at 46.1% and Peltola at 45.5%. The pollster himself calls this a tie.
Yet there is something worth watching: Quantus asked the question four different ways, including the full ballot, a head-to-head matchup, and versions that pushed undecided voters to choose a leaning.
Sullivan finished ahead every time, by margins ranging from 0.3 to 0.6 points.
It’s one poll, but it’s the latest major poll since recent New York Times revelations came out about Peltola’s raging and sometimes violent outbursts. At least in this poll, Peltola is not ahead overall. The tide may have turned.
Peltola, meanwhile, has been paying people in villages in Alaska to show up at her rallies, according to reports on Facebook from people who were offered money to crowd the rooms.
Peltola, according to the Quantus Insights poll, leads among women, urban and suburban voters, and, unsurprising to political observers, voters with graduate degrees. Historically in Alaska’s August primaries, women outvote men by several thousand votes; this may be due to the fact that many men in the summertime are working at jobs that make it difficult for them to get to a polling place — they are in camps, on crews, on fishing boats, and in remote worksites.
Peltola has an advantage among respondents classified as unaffiliated. That’s a large portion of the voter file: Nearly 300,000 voters in Alaska are in the “undeclared” category. Another 82,000 are “nonpartisan.” Democrat membership has dropped to 69,894. Republicans have 142,184 voters.
Sullivan has a coalition of his own: Men favor him 52% to 41%. Voters age 65 and older give him a six-point advantage. Respondents classified as rural favor him 57% to 36%.
That last finding deserves a look: In many parts of western Alaska, rural voters are not impressed with Peltola. They know her too well, it seems. Peltola has history there, not all of it favorable.
The survey suggests that Sullivan has voters available to him who will decide this election if they show up. The challenge is getting them to do it.
In this election, it’s coming down to turnout. It will also come down to vigilance on the part of the Division of Elections to watch for fraudulent voting or other election shenanigans, because in this election, it could come down to a coin toss.
Read Jason Corley’s analysis at his Substack site. Corley is cofounder of Quantus Insights.
13 thoughts on “Sullivan has the edge, but Alaska’s Senate race is now a turnout fight”
Peltola +7 in NYT/Sienna poll taken after the story in NYT about Ms. Peltola talking like a fisherman. Trumps approval at 23%. The 23% seemingly enjoy sky-high gasoline and grocery prices paired with 7% mortgage rates.
Maybe (a) the 23% understand that forcibly injecting 20 million indigent illegal aliens, requiring taxpayer-subsidized housing, food, and gasoline into America is what caused the trend of sky-high gasoline and grocery prices paired with 7% mortgage rates,
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(b) the 23% like President Trump’s choice to end Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade and their nuclear ballistic missile threat before it turns into a bad day for the other 77%, despite sky-high gasoline cost
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(c) the 23% understand how Ukraine wrecking Russian oil refineries affects the global petrol supply chain, causing sky-high gasoline cost.
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(d) the 23% appreciate President Trump liberating Venezuela whose petrol now goes to America instead of Cuba and Communist China.
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Fishermen talk? They produce something America needs. Peltola produces nothing anyone needs. No amount of Peltola-babble changes that.
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Only 23%? Who believes that sh… (oops!) stuff? Remember the last time mainstream media and pollsters reported great things about America and Americans? We don’t either.
Morrigan. According to the Migration Policy Institute, 3-4.7 migrants in America live below the poverty level. Your other points are overstated as well.
Unfortunately, Sullivan is making some last-minute mistakes that will hurt him. Here’s some, what should be obvious advice – stay away from Trump, Mike Johnson & JD Vance! They are NO help to you in this election.
Another problem for Sullivan is his continuing statement about supporting military veterans. This is NOT the case. There are myriad problems for veterans who have earned services at the Anchorage VA Clinic, but cannot access them. I have waited four months following referrals for two specialty clinics in Anchorage for two appointments. I have repeatedly asked for Sullivan’s assistance in remedying this and other problems at the Anchorage VA Clinic specifically and the VA more broadly. What do I hear from Sullivan and his staff? Nothing but crickets! The entire office needs to be fired!
SULLIVAN=TRUMP. TRUMP=POISON. NOVEMBER =PELTOLA.
Evan= bigot
Bigot? More like Shaman.
I don’t understand why Americans do not do their due diligence to vote even if they leave a candidate space blank because there was no opponent. There were times I didn’t vote for any candidates because they were all leftists, I just gave my opinion what I thought about the bonds, which we should be voting no because why on earth do you want to double tax yourself and your neighbors when the community already collects taxes and leaders CAN pay for the bond directly out of the budget if they restructured spending.
The only Americans with a good excuse not to pay attention to elections are mentally ill people (slow peoples they have enough troubles than worry about elections but they are dependent on us voters to vote for the RIGHT candidates who will not take advantage of society’s most vulnerable while they hold positions of power). Because everyone I talked to and asked if they vote before trying to encourage them they need to vote and that our home Anchorage, Alaska and every other town is going into the dumper because of not enough voters and the ones who do vote there not enough of us voting the RIGHT way!
If those non voting co workers and neighbors I encountered could hear my First initial thought upon hearing them say they do not vote. They’d hear me call them “you stupid because they are not mentally ill ( they are not slow)”. Then I precede to encourage them to reconsider their life choice not to vote not to participate in their community council, not to follow such sites as Alaska Story, Alaska Watchman (or even Alaska Landmine and Must Read Alaska) because our standard of living is getting harder to afford, jobs are becoming fewer, addiction and crime is increasing, k-12 education is declining, birth rates are declining, government is expanding, politicians and government dependents are literally growing fatter, the middle class is poverty level, the upper middle class is now middle class and inching to poverty level, government is over regulating, businesses aren’t starting up faster and customers have less spending power, and if you don’t get involved and start learning how to vote the Right way, you going to know what it was like for me living in Dead Juneau! You are going to leave Anchorage to find a new community with greener pastures until you settle and do get involved in that community’s governance. Or you’ll just keep on running until you run out of places to run to and then sit in despair and panic.
And if the margin of victory for a hypothetical Peltola win is reflected in the votes for Decoy Dan, we will have something close to a monstrous fraud of revolutionary proportions. The implications are truly enormous. Let’s pretend it goes in the worst possible way: Peltola herself will become a national byword, like turning traitor is called “A Benedict Arnold.” Any cheating or shameless gaming of a system, or lie, in whatever circumstance, will be called “A Peltola.” Amber Lee, Decoy Dan and Scott Kendall might have to move out of state. But they’ll get a ticker tape parade in NYC and lucrative movie rights. If all this gives the Lunatic Party control of the Senate, expect a lame-duck Republican Congress to call a quick judgement of the election being honest, and the Democrats refusing to grant a quorum. Then perhaps the Republicans will refuse to grant a quorum when a Lunatic-controlled Senate tries to assemble on January 3rd. Amazing, isn’t it? This will really put Alaska back on the map.
Democrats will celebrate their loser for round two in DC.
Murky and her shaman sister Crapola will decimate Alaska’s future.
OK, ok. So I told everyone a little fib. I really didn’t quit drinking. It’s on my “to do” list. But I’m going to wait until after the election, then release another statement. I rarely lie, except under these circumstances where another drink or two won’t kill me. But that’s probably coming sooner than I think.
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Derm The Mutt,
Always Farting Big For Democrats.
Can’t wait for old Dermie to do an article on faggots. And another one on alcoholics. He seems to be well informed about both topics. Hope he gets personal interviews with both Mary Peltola and Decoy Dan. Maybe at his favorite local bar?