By SUZANNE DOWNING
Sept. 26, 2028 – A new Trafalgar Group poll gives Sen. Dan S. Sullivan a narrow lead over Mary Peltola in Alaska’s US Senate race. It also shows why the presence of another Dan Sullivan on the ballot could be Peltola’s lynchpin in November.
The survey, conducted Sept. 22–24, found 46.8% for the incumbent Sullivan and 45.5% for Peltola. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. drew 2.8%, Gerald Heikes 0.7%, and 4.1% were undecided. Trafalgar surveyed 1,079 likely general election voters and reported a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Sullivan’s 1.3-point lead is within that margin.
The timing is important here: The New York Times published its account of angry outbursts and turmoil inside Peltola’s campaign on Sept. 23, in the middle of Trafalgar’s three-day polling window. Some respondents may have heard about the story. Others almost certainly answered before it was published or before it reached them. Without a breakdown of interviews by day, the poll cannot tell us whether the revelations changed anyone’s vote.
That makes this a snapshot of an exceptionally close race, not a verdict on the political damage from the Times report. The allegations about Peltola’s treatment of staff are serious, and voters may weigh them as they learn more. Any measurable effect would need to show up in polling conducted after Alaskans had time to absorb the story.
Yet, the result is closer for Sullivan than several earlier surveys. The RealClearPolling average of three polls conducted Sept. 8–17 put Peltola ahead 50.3% to 48.0%. Those were head-to-head results gathered before The New York Times report; they are useful context, but they are not a direct comparison with Trafalgar’s four-candidate ballot question.
The other Dan Sullivan — Decoy Dan — presents a separate problem. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. received 2.8% in Trafalgar’s first-choice question, more than twice the margin between the two front-runners. His similar name raises an obvious concern about voter confusion. The poll does not establish why those respondents chose him, however, or whether they would otherwise support the incumbent. It could very well be a case of confusion, as his candidacy is intended to do.
‘Decoy Dan’ scam exposes much wider network of political operatives and ‘nonprofit’ money in Alaska
Alaska’s ranked-choice count could resolve some of that split if Decoy Dan’s voters rank Sen. Sullivan next. If they do not rank another candidate, their ballots will have no vote to transfer once their choice is eliminated.
Trafalgar’s published ballot figure alone does not show how those voters would rank the remaining candidates, so it cannot establish a final-round winner. It does not capture or reveal any ranking data and it’s likely that the poll did not ask people to rank, just gave a straightforward question: Who would you vote for if you voted tomorrow?
For now, the defensible reading is straightforward: Sullivan and Peltola are essentially tied in this poll, within the margin of error, but the second Sullivan has enough first-choice support to make a difference, and the effect of the Sept. 23 Times story remains an open question. There may be other polls conducted this week, but they have not yet been made public.
4 thoughts on “New Alaska Senate poll puts Sullivan narrowly ahead, but cannot measure full impact of Peltola revelations”
Mean Mary needs to go away like Sarah Palin.
Mary really was a dismal failure during her 3 years in the House. So now she deserves to be promoted to the Senate? Alaska’s interests are important, but the Senate decides matters of global importance as well.
Trafalgar is a serious pollster. Serious in terms of the election day predictions versus election day results. This is good news for Sullivan’s campaign. Sullivan has had a good week.
One does wonder why republicans do not go after their opponents, but instead treat them with kid gloves. That NYT Times article has had more impact against the Fish Princess then anything Sullivan’s campaign has done.
And the republican gubernatorial candidates have gone after each other much more then the degraded homosexual kjt- of whom there are many ways to slice and dice “him”.
Would it be better if Mary were to be putting her mean texts out as mean tweets?