By SUZANNE DOWNING
July 1, 2026 – One day after the Alaska Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for “Decoy Dan” to appear on Alaska’s US Senate ballot, one of the nation’s leading election handicappers has done exactly what many Republicans warned could happen.
The Cook Political Report on Wednesday shifted Alaska’s US Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” explicitly citing the Alaska Supreme Court’s decision allowing Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. to remain on the ballot alongside incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Cook Political Report wrote that “the Alaska Senate race has already been teetering on the brink of the Toss Up column, and this week’s bad news for Republicans about the makeup of the ballot is enough to shift it into our most competitive category.”
The report points directly to the Alaska Supreme Court ruling that allows a second candidate with nearly the identical name as the incumbent to appear on the Aug. 18 primary ballot.
“At issue is a state Supreme Court ruling that will allow a candidate who shares a name with incumbent Republican candidate Sen. Dan S. Sullivan to also appear on the August primary ballot,” Cook wrote. “Both parties are preparing for the possibility that Dan J. Sullivan advances to the top-four general election in November, potentially siphoning at least a few points away from the GOP.”
The analysis concludes that in Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, “even a few points could make the difference.”
That assessment closely mirrors concerns Republicans have raised for weeks.
The Alaska Story has previously reported that Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. filed as a Republican, although he was an undeclared voter, had sought to appear on the ballot under the abbreviated name “Dan S. Sullivan,” which stole the incumbent senator’s middle initial, adopted campaign branding similar to the incumbent’s, and worked with Democratic political operatives connected to former Rep. Mary Peltola’s political network. The Division of Elections initially found him ineligible before the Alaska Supreme Court reversed that decision this week.
The Supreme Court ruled that state election officials lacked authority under existing law to remove him from the ballot.
Cook Political Report acknowledged one factor that could reduce voter confusion.
“The good news for Alaska Republicans,” the report notes, “is that the senator will be explicitly designated as the Republican incumbent on the ballot, while the other candidate (listed as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.) will be without a party designation after his name.”
That became apparent Tuesday when the Division of Elections released its sample ballot, identifying Sen. Dan Sullivan as the Republican incumbent while listing [Decoy] Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without any party affiliation.
The race was already expected to be competitive after Democrats, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York recruited former Rep. Mary Peltola to challenge Sullivan.
But Cook Political Report concluded that the presence of another candidate with essentially the same name has materially changed the political landscape.
Whether Decoy Dan ultimately draws enough votes to affect the outcome remains the million-dollar question, and it may make this race the most expensive in Alaska history. So it may be the multi-million-dollar question.
But one day after the Alaska Supreme Court’s ruling, a respected national election forecaster has reached the conclusion that Republicans have been warning about all along: The ballot itself has become a factor in the race. The race has been rigged for Mary Peltola.
With Alaska’s top-four primary less than seven weeks away, the Senate contest has now officially joined the nation’s most closely watched battlegrounds.
