Kreiss-Tomkins’ crush of campaign cash buys polls that push his second-place narrative

By SUZANNE DOWNING

July 29, 2026 – Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has amassed the largest campaign treasury in Alaska’s crowded race for governor. Now the Sitka Democrat is using some of that money to purchase polling that portrays him as the candidate surging into second place.

The polls may be statistically defensible, but they are not neutral public-service projects. They are campaign instruments: commissioned or promoted by the Kreiss-Tomkins campaign, packaged with favorable talking points and released to generate headlines about momentum.

The latest example comes from Change Research, a Democratic polling firm. Its survey of 604 likely Alaska primary voters, conducted July 17–19, placed Democrat Tom Begich first with 17% and Kreiss-Tomkins second with 15%.

Republican Bernadette Wilson followed with 14%. Independent Bill Walker received 7%, while Republicans Dave Bronson and Adam Crum each received 6%. Republican Click Bishop received 4%. About 27% remained undecided.

The resulting polling memo announced that Kreiss-Tomkins was “down just two points” and emphasized that he was the only candidate tested with a net-positive favorability rating. It also highlighted a finding that placed him first among voters’ second choices, although the firm acknowledged that result was based on only a subset of respondents and should be considered “directional.”

In other words, the campaign bought more than a ballot test. It obtained an entire collection of favorable messages that could be repeated in news releases, fundraising appeals and advertising.

A similar operation bought by JKT unfolded earlier this summer.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 529 likely primary voters June 24–25. That poll placed Begich first with 16%, Kreiss-Tomkins and Bronson tied at 13%, Wilson at 12%, Bishop at 10%, Walker at 8% and then-candidate Matt Claman at 3%. About 27% were undecided.

The Kreiss-Tomkins campaign immediately issued a news release declaring that JKT had “surged” and was within the margin of error of first place. The campaign emphasized that he led among respondents who already knew who he was, another favorable subset of the poll.

By July 8, when Kreiss-Tomkins announced his first television advertising purchase, the campaign was already declaring, “Our campaign is moving up in the polls.”

That is how campaign polling becomes campaign propaganda. The campaign pays for research, selects the findings it wants voters and reporters to see, releases those findings as news and then cites the resulting coverage as evidence of momentum.

It creates a political feedback loop: Money buys polls, and polls produce headlines, while headlines create perceived viability. Perceived viability attracts endorsements, contributions and voters who want to support a likely winner.

Kreiss-Tomkins has the money to run that operation repeatedly. His campaign reported raising more than $1.84 million since he entered the race in February and had more than $503,000 remaining in the bank in its July report. Much of his large-donor support has come from outside Alaska, including hundreds of thousands of dollars from employees of the artificial-intelligence industry.

That cash advantage allows him to purchase not only advertising but also the appearance of momentum.

Other available polling has not always placed Kreiss-Tomkins so close to the front. Earlier surveys generally showed Begich leading, Wilson as one of the strongest Republicans and Kreiss-Tomkins farther back. Results vary considerably depending on the pollster, sample, timing, question order and list of candidates presented.

Nearly every poll agrees on one significant point: A quarter or more of likely primary voters remain undecided. In a field of roughly 17 gubernatorial tickets, small movements within a poll’s margin of error can dramatically change the apparent order of finish without establishing that any genuine shift has occurred.

Some Alaska political observers believe the larger strategy is to ensure that Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins both survive the Aug. 18 top-four primary, giving Democrats two tickets in the ranked-choice general election. The Change Research memo’s unusual emphasis on Kreiss-Tomkins as a second-choice candidate fits neatly into that theory.

There is an important technical correction, however: Kreiss-Tomkins cannot become Tom Begich’s literal running mate after the primary. Alaska’s election system now requires candidates for governor and lieutenant governor to run together as established tickets in the primary. Kreiss-Tomkins is running with Anchorage Assemblyman Zac Johnson, while Begich is running with Julia Hnilicka.

What could emerge is a de facto alliance in the general election, with Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins encouraging their supporters to rank the other Democratic ticket second. Under ranked-choice voting, that could allow Democratic votes to transfer between the two tickets as candidates are eliminated.

The first objective is getting both Democrats into the top four. The second is persuading voters that Kreiss-Tomkins is already the obvious second-place candidate.

His campaign-financed polls are helping build precisely that narrative.

Polls are not election results, and campaign polls are not disinterested journalism. They are paid political products. In this case, Kreiss-Tomkins has enough money to keep buying them—and enough campaign sophistication to turn the findings into a story about his own inevitability.

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