By SUZANNE DOWNING
May 24, 2026 – Tom Begich may still be leading the crowded 2026 Alaska governor’s race, but the newest polling suggests the bigger story may be the growing separation between the top four candidates and the rest of the field, with Bernadette Wilson showing the strongest upward momentum of anyone in the race.
A new poll conducted May 14-17 by Alaska Survey Research among 1,401 likely Alaska voters, found that the same four candidates who occupied the top spots in April continue to dominate the field heading into the June 1 filing deadline for statewide office.
Under Alaska’s no-party primary and ranked-choice voting system, the top four finishers in the Aug. 18 primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. It’s the jungle primary system.
The latest numbers:
- Tom Begich (D) — 20.8% (+1.8)
- Bernadette Wilson (R) — 15.8% (+2.3)
- Dave Bronson (R) — 10.6% (+0.8)
- Click Bishop (R) — 9.8% (+0.8)
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) — 7.6% (-0.6)
- Matt Claman (D) — 7.3% (-0.7)
- Nancy Dahlstrom (R) — 6.4% (-0.5)
The previous April poll had shown a much tighter pack behind the top four leaders. In April, it looked like this:
- Begich — 19.0%
- Wilson — 13.5%
- Bronson — 9.8%
- Bishop — 9.0%
- Kreiss-Tomkins — 8.2%
- Claman — 8.0%
- Dahlstrom — 6.9%
What stands out is that all four leading candidates gained support over the past month … while the next three all lost ground.
Others were not included in the leaderboard results by Alaska Survey Research because they fell within the margin of error of under 3%. Alaska Survey Research responded to critics by saying, “Ok, let’s make this clear: ALL 18 candidates for governor were included in the survey question. These 7 candidates were just the top 7 in both surveys. No-one was ‘left out’.” There are 18 announced candidates.
The gap between the fourth-place candidate and the fifth-place candidate widened from less than one percentage point in April to more than two points in May — doubling, suggesting the race may already be beginning to consolidate around a smaller set of viable contenders.
Wilson, a conservative activist and business owner, posted the largest gain in the field, climbing 2.3 percentage points in a month and solidifying her position as the strongest-performing Republican in the ASR survey.
The movement also aligns with broader national analysis of the race.
Cook Political Report currently rates the Alaska governor’s race as “Likely Republican,” though analysts have noted the unusual dynamics created by Alaska’s ranked-choice system, the open seat created by Gov. Mike Dunleavy being term-limited, and the unusually large and fractured Republican field.
Cook Political Report: Alaska governor’s race is a ‘chaotic brawl’ that’s coming into focus
Meanwhile, Race to the White House has characterized the contest with Wilson having a 67% chance of winning. Since 2021, Race to the White House has accurately called the winner in 48 out of 50 governor’s races.
The ASR results are consistent with other limited polling that has emerged in recent months. A survey commissioned earlier this spring by the Bronson campaign similarly showed Begich leading the field in the low 20s, while other Republicans split the remaining conservative vote.
The latest ASR numbers suggest the field is no longer behaving like a wide-open free-for-all. Instead, four candidates appear to be gradually separating themselves from the pack as filing season comes to a close and the long campaign toward the August primary accelerates.
Of the four top candidates, three have named running mates: Bernadette Wilson chose Mike Shower, Dave Bronson chose Josh Church, and Click Bishop chose Greta Schuerch. Tom Begich is set to announce his lieutenant governor candidate on May 28 at an event in Anchorage.
30 thoughts on “Democrat Tom Begich leads in latest Alaska Survey Research poll, but Bernadette Wilson gaining on him”
The only reason Tom has any standing in this race is because of our beloved nephew, Nicholas. He carries the water for the Begich name. If Nicholas publicly denounces Tom, Tom is finished. Or, if Nicholas gives public support to someone like Dave Bronson, Tom might as well spare himself embarrassment and return home and watch the races in his recliner.
I will admit this, Nicholas is far better looking than me. Some people have me coined as an old white-haired, marijuana addicted hippy from the 60’s who never grew up. It’s not fair.
Only because you are just that! You can’t deny reality no matter how hard you try to be ” hip” and Leading edge. You were Avant Garde, and now you’re just plain Garde
LOL. Funniest comment of the day. NB3 and later, NB4, will make Uncles Tom and Mark obsolete in Alaska politics.
Who would have a more interactive relationship with the Alaska State Legislature or vice versa?
If Wilson fools the majority into voting for her, we’re doomed.
Integrity matters.
Alaskans would do well to take an honest look at her personal and professional life rather than the version she’s created for herself over the last 18 months.
Sounds like you have something to say about her, stop being coy, say it!!
When we consider candidates for political office, one of the first things we look at -because it offers a better glimpse into the candidate’s true character than what they may say about themselves- is his personal and professional life.
Does the candidate demonstrate integrity in his personal and professional life? Does he demonstrate long-term commitment to something outside himself? In his personal life: is he married? Does he have children? In his professional life: what is his profession? How long has he practiced within that career?
Most candidates advertise these two things first about themselves, because they know they still matter to people: we want our representatives to be men and women of good character with decent track records of service and commitment.
If John Doe from Kokomo owned a business for nine years after floating from job to job for most of his adult life, and that business was sued twice in less than a decade, would I conclude that John Doe has a good track record for consistency, integrity, commitment, or good business sense?
A short time ago, Kristi Noem lost her job as head of DHS after lewd photos of her husband surfaced online. Her husband’s lack of decency, self-respect, and common sense rendered Noem unfit for political office. Should we hold a candidate for Governor to the same standards of decency, self-respect, and common sense? Or should we turn a blind eye because….(fill in the blank).
What about Bernadette Wilson’s personal and professional life does the public need to know in its evaluation of her?
Say the things if you have things to say.
I don’t often agree with you, Micah. But you’re right on this one
Read between the lines, Micah and Chuck. Especially the last two paragraphs.
And check out some local news sources other than The Alaska Story.
You may be surprised at what you find out about Wilson. I’m not going to do the research for you, just suggesting the people of Alaska take a broader view of this particular candidate.
Sir, casting aspersions about a candidate without specifics and proof is just another form of LYING. “I’m not going to do the research for you” – then you haven’t done them “NotAnymore”, and the innuendo are unfounded lies. This is the reason our society is so broken – there is simply no respect for anyone, anything, especially when it comes to truth.
Respectfully, I disagree.
While I believe having posed for lewd photos that are now available on the internet should disqualify a candidate from consideration for public office and that those who are trying to decide which conservative candidate to vote for in a crowded field should be made aware that one candidate has done so, I’m not sure it’s entirely appropriate to draw direct attention to the fact.
I’m certainly not going to share a link. Refraining from actively sharing indecent material is not a form of lying. It is sufficient to say that such has already been reported on and shared, though not on The Alaska Story.
Exactly! Chuck Clarke, Not Anymore name shows discredits himself more than his attack attempt to discredit Bernadette. His comment sounds more like a jealous ugly Alaskan because Bernadette is prettier than him or her. Truth of the matter If more Alaskans learned to care better about themselves then they’d have nothing to be insecure about when they meet someone “prettier” than them.
Same thing about Sarah Palin. During her campaign she got an overwhelming amount of criticisms that sounded more like the rants of an irate, insecure, ugly woman or man jealous and insecure Palin took better care of herself and looked better than most of Alaskans.
There are two types of Alaskan styles today
Trashy and Sexy
And
Plain and homely
What Alaskans needs to also learn among many skills is how to dress stylish and appropriate. How to eat and exercise, how to maintain a healthy weight and fat level for their height and body frame.
So long as the conservatives, whomever they may be after the 🐂💩 jungle primary, don’t shoot at each other. If my choice is not polling in the top 7 as we move closer to the primary, I’ll hold my nose and pull for one of those who is.
I have a question I hope someone can answer. If I want a certain candidate to win the election, how do I vote with this quagmire of ranked choice election? Just vote for one? Or 2? Or all 4? The biggest vote is to repeal RCV!!!!!!
Just one in the primary. Rank your four tops in the general, but skip the libs.
I’m voting Dave Bronson for governor.
Any Republican other than Bernadette Wilson
If Bronson, Dalstom, and Bishop were team players then Bernadette most likely be leading because their Republican support would either passively, grudgingly, or willingly be supporting Bernadette because she isn’t a Democrat.
Do the math add the three lower percentages to the highest percentage of The Republican candidate and that’s Bernedette and you got your winner. Because Tom Begich would be trailing her adding the lower running Democrat candidate to his score.
Your AKGOP district leaders are either wanting a Democrat governor, or they don’t’ know what they are doing, or they’ll too old to be leading.
They know what they’re doing, theyre just corrupt. Its so much easier being the one who takes a dive. You still get paid, and you just phone it in , rather than having to actually, well, WORK its the same at the national level for senators. Itsva,lot easier being the controlled opposition, and you still get invited to the fancy parties and social events. That sweet, sweet NGO money still flows to you
I know they are. You know what volunteering around them is not easy to be around such people. Just like church people, after while being around them your stomach starts getting sick. 🤢
It’ll be just a waste of time to scrap the Republican or Democrat parties. If the outside Republicans don’t like how the current Republican old guard lead, make decisions and conclusions, and work, you have to keep showing up and work the tasks given to you. Eventually leaders they pass away, move away, and new individuals replace the gone ones.
Establishment $$ for establishment candidates ie BW…..we’d be under the RINO thumb with Wilson.
The Winning Republican (IF) the AkGoP maintains the Governor office will disappoint Conservatives and Far right Republicans accused for being too moderate. Realty the people of Alaska have been slow boiled to the left and government dependency for over thirty years. The state has to continue being Inched to the aisle again or the Center line before any Republican Governor can take more aggressive measures (like we seeTexas, Louisiana Arkansas, Oklahoma and Florida) to aggressively move Alaska to the Right side. Under another Republican governor who is politically astute, it’ll take another eight years to get the State on the center line. The ideals of conservatives won’t happen overnight or even under one administration. There are other types of people living in Alaska and not all of them grew up with conservative and small government ideals.
Change is hard for people. Just as Bernedette said in a campaign video “you don’t have to bring chaos and be chaotic to get things done. But what Alaskans do need and the Democrat AkLegislature needs is a Governor who’ll set those boundaries, be firm, and a little more aggressive showing the Democrat legislators the same aggression they displayed” poor Dunleavy he has done well leading to set the people of Alaska for the next Republican Governor who could be a little more aggressive than he was allowed by the people. Alaskans are more ready to be more independent than they were in Feb 2019.
If there is a 2027 Republican governor he or she can’t too aggressive like a Desantis because Alaskans are not Yet like Floridians.
Tina, you berate those who you consider dependent on government. Would you include in that group those that support receiving the PFD?
Unfortunately, the Democrat has momentum on his side. Public opinion has massively turned against the Republican Party thanks to Trump’s failure in Iran & soon to be $6 gas prices. MAGA & America First is still alive, but it has abandoned the Republicans. The best that can be hoped for is that they just don’t vote! Future elections will favor Independents & Democrats for the foreseeable future.
There is indeed A lot of Republicans who’d trade their birth right for a bowl of lentil stew thinking of their immediate comfort than the long term plan
Fish. I think it’s more that Republicans abandoned the nutty MAGA and America First adherents. Doesn’t matter much I suppose. The blue wave of reform and honesty is coming in November.
Toms look with the shoulder length hair and guitar hanging was more fitting for the job he is applying for. 🙂