Democrat Tom Begich leads in latest Alaska Survey Research poll, but Bernadette Wilson gaining on him

By SUZANNE DOWNING

May 24, 2026 – Tom Begich may still be leading the crowded 2026 Alaska governor’s race, but the newest polling suggests the bigger story may be the growing separation between the top four candidates and the rest of the field, with Bernadette Wilson showing the strongest upward momentum of anyone in the race.

A new poll conducted May 14-17 by Alaska Survey Research among 1,401 likely Alaska voters, found that the same four candidates who occupied the top spots in April continue to dominate the field heading into the June 1 filing deadline for statewide office.

Under Alaska’s no-party primary and ranked-choice voting system, the top four finishers in the Aug. 18 primary advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. It’s the jungle primary system.

The latest numbers:

• Tom Begich (D) — 20.8% (+1.8)
• Bernadette Wilson (R) — 15.8% (+2.3)
• Dave Bronson (R) — 10.6% (+0.8)
• Click Bishop (R) — 9.8% (+0.8)
• Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) — 7.6% (-0.6)
• Matt Claman (D) — 7.3% (-0.7)
• Nancy Dahlstrom (R) — 6.4% (-0.5)

The previous April poll had shown  a much tighter pack behind the top four leaders. In April, it looked like this:

• Begich — 19.0%
• Wilson — 13.5%
• Bronson — 9.8%
• Bishop — 9.0%
• Kreiss-Tomkins — 8.2%
• Claman — 8.0%
• Dahlstrom — 6.9%

What stands out is that all four leading candidates gained support over the past month … while the next three all lost ground.

Others were not included in the leaderboard results by Alaska Survey Research because they fell within the margin of error of under 3%. Alaska Survey Research responded to critics by saying, “Ok, let’s make this clear: ALL 18 candidates for governor were included in the survey question. These 7 candidates were just the top 7 in both surveys. No-one was ‘left out’.” There are 18 announced candidates.

The gap between the fourth-place candidate and the fifth-place candidate widened from less than one percentage point in April to more than two points in May — doubling, suggesting the race may already be beginning to consolidate around a smaller set of viable contenders.

Wilson, a conservative activist and business owner, posted the largest gain in the field, climbing 2.3 percentage points in a month and solidifying her position as the strongest-performing Republican in the ASR survey.

The movement also aligns with broader national analysis of the race.

Cook Political Report currently rates the Alaska governor’s race as “Likely Republican,” though analysts have noted the unusual dynamics created by Alaska’s ranked-choice system, the open seat created by Gov. Mike Dunleavy being term-limited, and the unusually large and fractured Republican field.

Cook Political Report: Alaska governor’s race is a ‘chaotic brawl’ that’s coming into focus

Meanwhile, Race to the White House has characterized the contest with Wilson having a 67% chance of winning. Since 2021, Race to the White House has accurately called the winner in 48 out of 50 governor’s races.

The ASR results are consistent with other limited polling that has emerged in recent months. A survey commissioned earlier this spring by the Bronson campaign similarly showed Begich leading the field in the low 20s, while other Republicans split the remaining conservative vote.

The latest ASR numbers suggest the field is no longer behaving like a wide-open free-for-all. Instead, four candidates appear to be gradually separating themselves from the pack as filing season comes to a close and the long campaign toward the August primary accelerates.

Of the four top candidates, three have named running mates: Bernadette Wilson chose Mike Shower, Dave Bronson chose Josh Church, and Click Bishop chose Greta Schuerch. Tom Begich is set to announce his lieutenant governor candidate on May 28 at an event in Anchorage.