Southeast Alaska is heading into a prolonged and complicated winter weather pattern this weekend, with heavy snow expected first, followed by rain falling on top of the snow, and strong wind, a combination that can strain buildings, sink boats, flood low-lying areas, and create hazardous conditions overall.
In Yakutat, snow accumulations are predicted to be between 17 and 21 inches. Haines could see 12-19 inches.
The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for much of the region as the system moves in. Forecasters say confidence has increased in the timing of the snowfall, the transition to rain, and how far north warmer air is likely to reach.
Juneau: Heavy snow Saturday, rain by Sunday
In Juneau, conditions will begin deteriorating late Friday night and intensify through the weekend.
Snow is expected to develop overnight Friday, with heavy snowfall on Saturday. The National Weather Service is forecasting 7 to 10 inches of new snow in the capital city by Saturday night, with temperatures rising enough for snow to begin mixing with rain late Saturday.
By Sunday morning, precipitation is expected to turn all rain, with temperatures climbing into the upper 30s. Rain is forecast to continue through Monday, and again intermittently into midweek.
This transition raises concerns about rain-on-snow impacts, including water damming or pooling on rooftops, blocked storm drains, and increased runoff into creeks and roadside ditches.
Here’s the Weather Service play-by-play for Juneau, which shows the snow-rain-snow pattern for the coming days:
Wrangell and Central Panhandle: Snow, wind, then rain
In Wrangell, snow is expected to begin Saturday morning and become heavy at times, with 5 to 8 inches of accumulation possible, along with strong east winds and blowing snow.
Snow is forecast to continue into Saturday night before mixing with rain on Sunday, when temperatures rise toward freezing. Periods of heavy rain are possible Sunday night into Monday, with precipitation continuing through much of next week.
Nearby communities such as Petersburg are expected to see similar conditions, with 8 to 12 inches of snow possible before rain moves in.
Why rain on snow matters
While Southeast Alaska is accustomed to snow and rain, rain falling on a fresh, heavy snowpack can create unique hazards:
-
Roof loading: Rain saturates snow, dramatically increasing its weight and raising the risk of roof damage or collapse, particularly on flat or lightly pitched roofs.
-
Boat safety: Accumulated snow and rainwater on vessels can affect stability, especially for smaller boats and those left unattended in harbors.
-
Flooding: Melting snow combined with rain can overwhelm storm drains, culverts, and roadside ditches, leading to localized flooding.
-
Road hazards: Slushy snow, standing water, and refreezing overnight can create dangerous driving conditions.
Northern Panhandle still uncertain
Forecast uncertainty remains for Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway, where colder air may limit how far north the rain transition reaches. If warm air does not fully penetrate the northern Panhandle, those communities could remain locked in a prolonged heavy snow pattern rather than rain on snow.
Updated forecasts, warnings, and detailed discussions are available at weather.gov/Juneau.
