Suzanne Downing: There was no blue wave in Alaska. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

By SUZANNE DOWNING

Nov. 8, 2026 – Alaska did not suddenly turn blue on Election Day. We still only have 11.7% of the voters who are with the Democratic Party.

Yet, we may very well end up with more Democrats governing us and locking down our freedoms. We could have Democrat-led coalitions controlling both legislative chambers, a Democrat governor, and possibly a Democrat replacing US Sen. Dan Sullivan.

But before anyone starts talking about a sweeping mandate for the left, let’s look at the actual numbers.

In the preliminary US Senate count, Sullivan has 102,325 votes. Republican Gerald Heikes has another 4,846. Together, that is 107,171 votes, compared with Mary Peltola’s 102,962.

That’s a Republican advantage of 4,209 votes. Comparing those two totals, it works out to almost exactly 51% Republican and 49% Democrat — a two-percentage-point margin.

That calculation does not include a single vote for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., otherwise known in these parts as Decoy Dan.

He has another 3,600 votes. If all of those were added to the incumbent’s column, the combined Republican-candidate total would reach 110,771, or 7,809 more than Peltola.

It’s impossible to know how many voters were confused but we heard from many who said they thought they blew it and voted for the wrong Dan. As for me, I had to stop and really concentrate to make sure I didn’t put my mark next to the decoy candidate.

Allegations that the same-name candidacy was recruited for the express purpose of confusing voters are serious and there needs to be a full investigation because a ballot is intended to measure voter intent. It should not become an exercise in distinguishing the real senator from a political decoy that was sought out by Democrats due to having the same name as the sitting senator.

More ballots remain to be counted. The official ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18. Sen. Sullivan may yet win.

But whatever happens, these preliminary numbers do not constitute a blue wave.

Look at the US House race. Congressman Nick Begich has 105,647 votes, well ahead of Bill Hill’s 86,023. Hill ran without a party label, but calling him an independent is a bad joke. There was complete Democratic Party support behind his campaign. He’s yet another decoy.

Begich is no squishy Republican trying to pass himself off as something else. He is a conservative. Alaska voters have put him clearly in front. That’s voter intent — the majority of Alaskans voted for the conservative.

Then there is the governor’s race, where certain spoiler Republican ambition may deliver the Governor’s Mansion to a Democrat.

Bernadette Wilson has 61,734 votes. Spoiler Dave Bronson has less than half that at 30,003. Treg Taylor has 15,763.

Add them: 107,500 Republican votes.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the Democrat, has 103,837.

There again, the Republican tickets collectively led JKT by 3,663 votes. They account for 50.72% of the votes in the preliminary tally, including write-ins in the denominator. JKT, who had more money than God, only got 48.99%.

After a multimillion-dollar campaign, the Democrat JKT still has fewer first-choice votes than the three Republicans combined.

But here’s the problem (or if you’re a Democrat, here’s the delightful outcome): Three Republican candidates mean that there will be ballot exhaustion, because Republican voters often do not choose to settle for seconds. They don’t like to rank.

JKT may become governor, but Alaskans didn’t vote for him in the majority. He’ll only get there because of the spoiler effect.  This is a huge flaw of ranked-choice voting.

Republicans failed to unite voters behind a candidate. Part of that is a problem with the Alaska Republican Party and the lack of solid leadership, and its inability to get its own house in order. Even Donald Trump issued an endorsement in this race, but the party could not get out of its own way.

Thus, we are in an extraordinary place for a conservative state to find itself, and because of this bizarre outcome, there is going to be a very angry public about what just happened. It would be the same for San Francisco, if for some reason ranked-choice voting led to a Republican mayor.

Alaska gave Donald Trump 54.54% of its presidential vote in 2024. Two years later, we are looking at being governed by state and federal leaders who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris two years ago.

Unfortunately, the repeal of ranked-choice voting is trailing, with “No” ahead by roughly 52% to 48%. There is little chance the difference can be made up by outstanding votes.

“Yes” meant repeal. “No” meant keep the system. The opposition also had the campaign-finance provisions to defend, allowing it to argue about dark money while supporters tried to explain primaries and rankings.

The next repeal effort, should there be one, must separate those questions. Leave the financial disclosure provisions alone. Put the election system itself before voters: Restore party primaries and end ranked-choice general elections.

Make the question clear. Make the campaign clear. Give voters a decision about how we elect people without bundling it with a separate argument over donor disclosure.

The Republican Party needs to make this a central mission. It also needs candidates who understand that winning an argument against another Republican is a lousy consolation prize for handing power to the left. When Bronson said, “She [Bernadette Wilson] can’t win,” what he really meant was “I won’t let her win.”

I hear from Alaskans who say they have had enough. They talk about moving to Idaho or Wyoming. Whether they actually leave our state is a discussion for another day, but their frustration is real. They see more first-choice votes going to Republican candidates in these statewide races, yet face a state being governed by Democrats who will enact an income tax. It doesn’t feel fair because it is not fair.

There was no blue wave in Alaska. But there will be an angry wave as the reality sets in that we are being governed by the 11.7% Democrats. That bears repeating: Just 11.7% of voters are registered Democrats in Alaska, and yet they are running the show thanks to ranked-choice voting and Republican spoilers.

Republicans have an election system to change, a party to straighten out, and a state to fight for.

Suzanne Downing is founder and editor of The Alaska Story and is a longtime Alaskan.