Alaska isn’t alone: Democrats’ shrinking voter rolls reflect a broader national decline

THE ALASKA STORY

Nov. 2, 2026 – Alaska Democrats’ shrinking share of the voter rolls is part of a much larger problem for the party: Across the states that record party registration, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every state between the 2020 and 2024 elections.

The Alaska Story previously reported on Democrats’ diminishing registration in Alaska. September 2026 figures put the party at 69,894 registered voters out of 603,310 statewide, or about 11.6%. Republicans numbered 142,184, or 23.6%, more than twice the Democratic total.

But the erosion extends far beyond Alaska.

A New York Times analysis published in August 2025, using data from the nonpartisan firm L2, found Democrats lost approximately 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections across 30 states and Washington, D.C. Republicans added about 2.4 million, producing a combined shift of roughly 4.5 million toward the GOP.

Democrats retained the registration lead across those jurisdictions, but it narrowed from nearly 11 percentage points to just over six. Every one of the 30 states moved toward Republicans relative to Democrats.

Republicans also surpassed Democrats among new registrants in 2024 for the first time since 2018. Democratic registration showed particular weakness among younger voters and men.

Those figures describe changes in registration totals, rather than a count of people who directly switched from Democrat to Republican. Voter rolls change through new registrations, party switches, deaths, moves and registration maintenance.

The growth of voters outside either major party is another part of the picture.

A USAFacts analysis of official state records found Democratic registration share declined in 93% of the roughly 1,360 counties it examined over the available 2016–2026 period. Republican share increased in 77%, while voters choosing minor parties or no affiliation became a larger presence across much of the country.

Alaska already has an unusually large pool of voters outside the two major parties. Its September figures listed 299,022 undeclared voters and 82,002 nonpartisan voters. Together, those categories accounted for about 63.2% of registrations.

For Alaska Democrats, that means winning statewide requires reaching substantially beyond their registered base. The same unaffiliated electorate also remains essential to Republican candidates.

There are recent signs of improvement for Democrats elsewhere. An NBC News Decision Desk analysis reported in October found Democrats had reversed or slowed their registration losses in several closely contested states during 2026. The analysis used voter-file data from TargetSmart, which is a progressive data firm, and included Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Voters can support another party’s candidates, especially in Alaska, where there’s a jungle primary and ranked-choice general election, and turnout can outweigh a registration advantage.

Still, Alaska’s small Democratic registration base fits a broader pattern: The party entered this election cycle rebuilding ground it had lost across states with very different political traditions.