A 71% chance of winning? Alaska voters should be wary of election-eve sales pitches

THE ALASKA STORY

Nov. 2, 2026 – With Election Day hours away, Alaska voters are being offered another set of numbers that sound authoritative: Mary Peltola has a 71.4% chance of winning the US Senate race.

But before anyone mistakes that figure for a measurement of Alaska voters, consider what arrived in The Alaska Story’s inbox: An unsolicited promotional email from Action Network described Peltola as the “clear favorite” over Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. It supplied a table of implied victory probabilities and asked for a backlink if The Alaska Story used its data.

This was a media pitch about prediction-market odds, not any new survey of Alaska voters, and it came from a leftist organization posing as a credible source.

Actionnetwork.org is a progressive organizing platform. It is all about progressive causes and candidates and its pitch should be judged on what it actually supplies … and what it leaves unsaid.

The email listed these figures for Nov. 2:

The pitch does not identify the underlying exchange or exchanges, trading volume, liquidity, or even how the figures were calculated. It’s just a progressive group trying to get someone to bite on its spurious prediction.

Without more information, writers, editors, and readers cannot assess how much weight to give it.

The email describes Sullivan’s 29.6% implied probability as evidence of Peltola’s “commanding lead.”

But even the pitch acknowledges Peltola’s implied probability fell from 74% on Oct. 22 to 67% on Oct. 30, then recovered to 71.4%. Supposedly.

On those supplied figures, Peltolas probability was below its Oct. 22 level but above its Oct. 30 level.

The email attributes this observation to “prediction markets analyst “Ian Undery: “While it is impossible to definitively assert that the ballot controversy has had a decisive impact on market’s odds, the race is undeniably growing tighter and more competitive.”

Undery has five years experience and works for Action Network. He is an Argentinian. It is likely he is a straw man for this group.

The email also concedes that public polling suggests a considerably tighter contest. But it provides no accompanying poll results or methodology for readers to examine. It just hopes writers and editors will lock onto the “71.4%” figure to help sway the election.

All this is to say that Alaskans should be wary of any election-eve message that makes it sound like the election is already decided. The election remains in voters’ hands.