Alaska pollster reveals that Bernadette Wilson has led Republicans in all 15 of his polls

By SUZANNE DOWNING

Oct. 7, 2026 – Alaska pollster Ivan Moore has disclosed a previously unknown detail about the governor’s race: Bernadette Wilson has led the Republican field in all 15 surveys he has conducted.

The disclosure adds a longer history to a pattern now visible in public polling. Wilson’s position as the leading Republican has persisted throughout Moore’s surveys, including polling conducted for private clients and candidates — polls that voters did not previously see.

Moore, the Alaska-based pollster behind Alaska Survey Research, is frequently associated with Democratic political circles. His acknowledgment nevertheless reinforces what surveys from several different firms show: Wilson remains ahead of Republicans Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor.

But leading Republicans and winning the governor’s office are two different challenges.

Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces no other Democrat on the general-election ballot following Tom Begich’s withdrawal. Republicans, meanwhile, have three candidates dividing first-choice support. Recent ranked-choice simulations put Wilson in the final round against Kreiss-Tomkins, but show the Democrat winning because Republicans don’t reliably go along with ranking.

Alaska Survey Research’s latest poll, reported Oct. 6, gives Kreiss-Tomkins a 54%-46% advantage after three rounds of ranked-choice counting.

Other surveys show the same finalists, with different margins:

• Cygnal, Sept. 24–27: Kreiss-Tomkins received 44% in first-choice support, Wilson 24%, Taylor 9%, and Bronson 8%, with 15% undecided. Wilson exceeded her two Republican rivals combined. The survey of 502 likely voters had a margin of error of approximately 4.4 percentage points and did not release a complete ranked-choice simulation.
• AARP/Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, Sept. 8–11: Kreiss-Tomkins received 40%, Wilson 20%, Bronson 14%, and Taylor 7% in initial preferences. The final ranked-choice simulation favored Kreiss-Tomkins, 55%-45%.
• New York Times/Siena, Sept. 24–Oct. 1: Kreiss-Tomkins received 40%, Wilson 20%, Bronson 15%, and Taylor 11%. After Taylor and Bronson were eliminated in the simulation, Kreiss-Tomkins led Wilson, 52%-48%.

Each survey places Wilson ahead of the other Republicans. None of those published ranked-choice simulations shows her winning the final round.

That leaves Republicans with a question that cannot be answered simply by adding three candidates’ first-choice percentages: Will Bronson and Taylor voters actually rank Wilson?

A ballot marked only for an eliminated candidate stops counting when it has no remaining ranked candidate. That ballot is referred to as an “exhausted ballot.”

The AARP survey illustrates that problem. Approximately a quarter of respondents ranked neither eventual finalist, and that group had strongly favored Donald Trump in 2024. Those voters represent a potential opportunity for Republicans, but their participation in a final round cannot be assumed, and then there is the refusal of Bronson and Taylor to suspend their campaigns and clear the path for Wilson to win outright.

There is also the cost of delivering the ranking message.

The Alaska Story’s review of the latest campaign reports found Wilson with more than $207,000 in cash on hand, compared with approximately $30,000 for Taylor and about $6,000 for Bronson.

Taylor’s roughly $268,000 in reported receipts included about $140,000 from the candidates and another $93,000 in donated services, leaving roughly $35,000 from other sources.

Those balances leave Bronson and Taylor with limited capacity to finance a sustained statewide campaign explaining their ranking strategy. The Alaska Republican Party has not supplied the broad ranking campaign needed to fill that gap, according to The Alaska Story’s earlier reporting.

One scenario puts Wilson’s first-round target at approximately 38%, assuming Kreiss-Tomkins receives 44%. That would leave 18% elsewhere in the field. Wilson would then need a substantial advantage in transfers to overcome her six-point deficit.

But 38% is no guarantee. The outcome would still depend on how many ballots continue counting, how many transfer to Wilson, and how many transfer to Kreiss-Tomkins.

Moore’s disclosure supplies new evidence about the Republican contest: Wilson’s lead has been consistent across his entire series of surveys. The unresolved question is whether Republicans can turn that lead into enough first-choice votes and subsequent rankings to win in November. Early voting begins on Oct. 19.

Fundraising reports sharpen governor’s race: Wilson leads Republicans, while JKT holds a commanding money advantage

Poll: Bernadette Wilson surges among Alaska Republicans, Kreiss-Tomkins holds a narrow edge in governor’s race