By SUZANNE DOWNING
Oct. 1, 2026 – Republican Bernadette Wilson has more than doubled her support since the August primary and now leads all GOP rivals in Alaska’s governor’s race, according to a new poll from Cygnal, which has had credible polling results in previous campaign cycles in Alaska. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a narrow lead overall, but within the margin of error.
The survey, conducted Sept. 24-27 among 502 likely general election voters, found Wilson at 24%, up from the more than 10% she received in the certified primary. Kreiss-Tomkins sits at 44%, short of a majority, with 15% of voters undecided.
Wilson’s closest Republican rival, Treg Taylor, registered 9%, putting her 15 points ahead of him, and moving him ahead of Dave Bronson, who has stagnated at 8%, the same share he won in the primary. Combined, the three Republicans total 41%, three points behind Kreiss-Tomkins.
Wilson’s gains are concentrated among Republicans, 46% of whom back her, according to the memo. She also wins 47% of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024, compared with 14% each for Bronson and Taylor.
Cygnal said Wilson leads her Republican opponents in every gender, age, education and regional group it measured. She reaches 30% in South Central Alaska and 34% among women 55 and older. She also outpolls Bronson and Taylor combined, 24% to 17%.
“Wilson is the only Republican with a realistic path to victory,” Cygnal pollster Mitchell Brown wrote in the memo. It has a margin of error of 4.37%.
The executive summary says:
“Bernadette Wilson has emerged from a crowded primary as the clear Republican frontrunner for Governor, more than doubling her primary share from 10% to 24% and leading her closest Republican rival by +15 points. With Republicans combining for 41% to Kreiss-Tomkins’ 44% and a right-leaning undecided bloc, Wilson is the only Republican with a realistic path to victory.
“Wilson Has More Than Doubled Her Primary Share
- +14 points since August. Wilson won 10% in the certified primary and now draws 24%.
- Her rivals have stalled. Bronson took 8% in the primary and still sits at 8% today.
- A broad-based lead. Wilson tops every other Republican in every gender, age, education, and regional group, reaching 30% in South Central and 34% among women 55+.
“Wilson Is the Only Republican With a Chance
- Republicans are choosing Wilson. She wins 46% of Republicans, nearly triple Bronson (16%) or Taylor (13%).
- The Trump coalition is with her. Wilson wins 47% of 2024 Trump voters, to 14% each for Bronson and Taylor.
- She outpolls her rivals combined, 24% to 17% for Bronson and Taylor together.
The poll suggests the race may be closer than Kreiss-Tomkins’ lead indicates. Among undecided voters, 55% prefer the Republican candidate for Congress and 60% voted for Trump in 2024. One in five Republicans (20%) remains undecided, which Cygnal describes as room for the GOP to consolidate behind a single candidate. This, then, becomes a matter of turnout, which will depend on everything from voter enthusiasm, weather, and whether the Alaska Republican Party can manage a get-out-the-vote effort competently this year.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.37 percentage points. It was conducted by live phone calls and text-to-web messages, and the results were weighted to reflect likely general election voters.
Cygnal is a Republican polling firm, and the memo was addressed to “interested parties.” The memo was circulated on social media by Brown himself.
47 thoughts on “Poll: Bernadette Wilson surges among Alaska Republicans, Kreiss-Tomkins holds a narrow edge in governor’s race”
She gets my third vote. 1)Bronson 2)Taylor 3) Wilson. Too many skeletons in the closet for her to get my first or second vote. When you go to cast your vote just think she has a kid with the weasel Chris Tuck who drove around Anchorage during one of the biggest snow years in recent history complaining about the roads. If you want him hanging around the governors mansion then vote Wilson #1.
That’s what you have? I sincerely doubt Mr. Tuck is involved in Bernadette’s life except as it matters to her kid. Not sure you need to smear her with this, when it is clear that Mr. Bronson can’t get along with anyone who disagrees with him, and Taylor can’t read the plain language of the law. But YMMV.
She smeared herself with Tuck…..how you can buddy up with the union hack of the house and still be considered conservative? This is very revealing to anyone who has paid any attention at all.
Wilson is milk toast, not a strong candidate.
I wasn’t polled, but we do have to rank the RED under this pitiful RCV….so yes….
Bronson
Taylor
Wilson
…………and pleasssssseee….YES on 2…!!!!
1. Wilson.
2. Taylor.
3. Bronson.
Sorry, Dave. You can’t win here, so I backed you down from first to third. If the little gay boy wins, you will be to blame for all of the LGBTQ and Marxist legislation henceforth. You know the game.
Serious question, what draws you to Wilson? Her person life? Her business career? Neither seem to be on the up and up. Just don’t ask me what draws me to Dave, I can’t answer it:) just lesser of 2 losers.
J, or whoever you are, we are all entitled to our own opinions and belief and in no way shape or form desire to be questioned by the ilks like you. Do you even live in AK? Probably not, so stop trying to forcwe your political beliefs on everyone else.
haha, John what are you talking about? I asked a couple questions and they weren’t directed to you. Born and raised here. Own a business. Raising a family etc. Not your enemy. Haven’t said anything negative about you. I am voting republican just like you. So what is your problem? I wasn’t rude, belittling and negative.
John in Alaska, whoever you are…. we see the irony of you withholding your name while criticizing others for doing the same. What is with all you cowards on here using phony names?
Wayne Douglas Coogan,
My good and oldest friend, I wonder why you are so strident in your critical assessment of other people’s comments?
I applaud your zeal and integrity, however in the interest of discourse of a particular subject, would it not be more beneficial to discuss the issue at hand, instead of employing inventive?
Our world is full of morons, especially within the realm of politics, if you doubt that, then consider our two major political parties and their representatives.
Please old friend, tone it down and learn to suffer fools, or… go find a remote place to live, cut off all social media and propaganda, ( news outlets), and find that peace that passes all understanding.
You are welcome!
How about she learns from her mistakes, unlike Mr. Bronson or Mr. Taylor. How about she raised her kids, and always made payroll, even during covid. How about the rest of us are pretty tired of folks like you calling her a whore for things most of you do yourselves. Any of this ringing a bell?
Thanks for asking. .Wilson’s optimism, charisma, energy, populism, fearlessness, and the fact that Anthropic apparently couldn’t buy her.
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Dave’s not a bad guy. He defended human beings from Anchorage’s Covidians, tried to bring a semblance of insanity to city government, might be a decent addition to Wilson’s executive branch. Build on the visibility, run for Senate to replace Lisa, it could qork.
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Dave didn’t appear to follow up on his complaint about some unknown sticking a thumb drive of unknown provenance in the vote-tabulating machinery during his re-election campaign. Hope like hell that issue was not allowed to die in exchange for some quid pro quo arrangement.
Sorry J. I can’t roll with you. It’s all a numbers game from here to early November. Bronson is stalled out and as a pilot, we both know what that means. Bernie may not be ideal, but she can win. If JKT suits your fancy, then this explains it. I don’t want JKT because he is a complete and full-on socialist. Bad for Alaska and bad for YOU, if you are truly a business person, a family person, and a Republican as you purport to be. I don’t care about his person life or alleged homosexuality. But more LGBTQ, DEI and woke politics in my life is antithetical to my being in this beloved 49th state.
J:
What drew you to Sarah Palin 20 years ago? Yes, it was 2006. She kicked Frank Murkowski and John Binkley off the ballot, then she kicked the Democrat’s ass in the general election. Two years later she was running for Vice-President of the United States. Sure, you voted for her.
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Put Bernadette side by side with Sarah Palin and make the comparison. Sarah is like a little girl going as a groupie to a hockey game. Bernadette is a very modest, controlled, mature woman who runs a multi-million dollar business. I met her today in Fairbanks. I was very impressed by her demeanor. She’s got my entire family’s vote. She should get yours too. Cheers!
Alaskan Republicans voting in 2006 they should had stuck by their Governor Frank Murkowski. He lost because of his Trimming of our state government and budget (but it moved the state operating budget into a surplus), his aggressive personality traits, and a couple personal ethic complaints. But overall he would been far better for Alaskans than Palin, Parnell, and Walker. And Dunleavy may found a more fitter Alaska who was more in shape for Donna Auduin reshaping and restructuring the budget.
The public employee campaign ads were brutal against him.
Alaskans government dependency just show we were government dependent even in 2006 and before that. Since 2006 we are digging our grave deeper into the deficit hole.
Because when Donna Auduin came to Alaska as Dunleavy’s budget director. We were like THAT Obese World Trade Center employee trying to make it down 50+ flights of stairs among thousands of evacuating employees trying to get out at a high speed facing a life or death crisis. Gov Murkowski through his aggressive temperament and personality he was getting the state in shape.
No,Tina. I lost in 2006 because my dumbass daughter recommended to me that I cancel the senior’s Longevity Bonus Program that benefitted older, white persons. Then, I purchased a Lear Jet with State of Alaska money so that Nancy and I could fly to DC and get Lisa home. She hated flying first class on Alaska Airlines. And that’s why I got beat by Palin. The old, white Republican seniors turned against me.
Voting for Wilson and ranking the other two just so we have a fighting chance to win and not have a democrat in the governor’s seat. Why not Bronson or Taylor? Bronson was not able to do much while being mayor of Anchorage, as he was constantly and effectively antagonized and outmaneuvered by our leftist Assembly. What makes anyone think he will be much better when tangling with our mostly left leaning legislators? He will be a lame duck governor from the get go. Sorry for Dave, Im sure he means well but we need someone who has the gumption and spine to fight back and be creative in their approach to governance. Taylor? He doesn’t have enough support among conservatives and his tenure as AG does not convince me as to whether he has what it takes. So Wilson it is for me
The right needs die-hard Bronson and Taylor supporters to rethink their decision to change their vote to ranking Wilson 1 and their favorites 2 or three.
And Bronson is a fighter. He did fight as best as he could against the Anchorage assembly with what he knew and with what people were around him. I don’t know why Bronson and Taylor wanted to run for Governor in the first place except their reason has to be for superficial reasons. Bronson coming from obscurity misses the limelight of holding a public position and Taylor doesn’t want to leave the Governor and mansion access since he was a member of the Governor’s administration and Dunleavy terms out. Because it doesn’t make any sense why they are running. I hope their die hard supporters recognized it and change their first place votes to Wilson/Shower because her campaign messaging appeals better to the larger mass who do not read Alaska Story, Alaska Watchman, or Must Read Alaska, nor follow the politics better left and right.
When it comes to campaign messaging Wilson/Shower team they are performing better that they can equally compete with JKT and his Democrat team. Her age being his age, makes them equal. Because Americans are looking toward Millennials and GenZ when there are boomers and GenXers running in campaign races.
Wilson could drop the sissy boy where he stands. Wilson is a fighter. JKT is a sissy fag.
I’m not sure I would describe a 44-24% race as being as a “narrow edge” but then again I don’t own the site so that’s the author’s prerogative. In other news from the sports world yesterday the Yankee’s eked out a win over the Red Sox 9-0.
Thanks for a laugh.
1) Bronson
2) Taylor
3) Wilson
If the Republican supporters of Bronson and Taylor could recognize, her team has developed a better campaign messaging that would be equally competitive as JKT. Wilson/Shower are the surer choice for the party members to unify behind than taking a chance to vote their favorite as one choice (while ranking the three). Odds of pushing the majority to rank Wilson/Shower as one is higher than trying to convince why Bronson or Taylor should be ranked 1.
Plus too she is same age as JKT. Americans are looking to younger leaders than GenX and Boomers.
502 people were polled.
166,931 people voted in the August primary.
Explain to me how 24% of 502 is greater than 10% of 166,931?
And… “The memo was circulated on social media by Brown himself” tells me all I need to know about it’s objectivity. Much like the need to label it “credible.”
“Vote for/rank Bernadette #1 because she’s the most popular” continues to grow old.
Push poll.
Don’t wait for AKGOP leaders to tell their base to unify behind one candidate or in the gubnatorial race case unify behind ranking by Primary order. Unification is the ONLY way to give a stronger challenge against AKDemocrats from taking the Executive branch too while they already got the 2027 legislature and have our liberal jungle court system.
The likely voters voting for the Republican we got to do the right thing even while our groups leaders aren’t leading us into the right direction how to unify in vote to better our chance maintaining the executive branch in Republican control.
I was actually a participant in this poll. Im voting for Wilson 1 , Bronson 2 and Taylor 3. Mostly because shes the only candidate against data centers . I could not care less about federal elections as both parties are disgustingly corrupt, but I do care about who runs our state . Chat JKT is beta male socialist
So, how do we vote in order to secure a Republican governor? Personally I want Bernadette Wilson. Do I vote for just her? Or do I make sure to rank the other two Republicans? If any of these other two Republicans win that’s fine with me, because I don’t want the little gay boy to be my governor.
If it was only Wilson/Shower. Then yes only those two. Just like we only vote for Dan S Sullivan and Nicholas Begich then exhaust. BUT for the Gubnatorial because we unfortunately have three good R’s. We rank the three in PRIMARY ORDER, Wilson 1, Bronson 2, and Taylor 3. I think by probability chance the majority of likely voters for Republicans are moving in that direction. Under RCV do not rank the opponents else they get the voters vote. It’s how the underdogs become elected.
Kevin it is confusing but you CAN vote for just wilson/shower because they are in the lead and will remain so throughout the ranking process. So IF you only filled in the bubble for that ticket your ballot will stay in play because they never get eliminated. IF, however, you voted for Bronson or Taylor “first”, they will both be eliminated in round 1 and 2 mathematically because of how far behind they are both in polling, primary results and fundraising, all of which tell the same tale. That means in that case, if anyone votes for Bronson or Taylor as their first or second choice, and do NOT rank wilson as their second or third choice, when Bronson and Taylor inevitably get eliminated your ballot is then “exhausted”. Unfortunately this is the reality of this downright devious ranked choice system which makes it about the strategy and math to win an election, not so much the person and their policies.
So in summary, if you are voting for wilson number 1, you can just fill in that one and move on. If you are voting for Bronson or Taylor as your number one (or two) choice, you MUST fill in wilson as your number 2 or 3 choice or your ballot won’t count in the final round it won’t get counted.
As you can tell this gets confusing which is why I think many people are pushing “rank” all 3 republican candidates. It’s not technically accurate nor the best way to win vs a unified democrat single opponent. But we’re stuck with it for this election cycle.
So the important bit is YES on 2, then rank the republican candidates 1,2,3 in order?
I ask because I am confused by SD saying do not rank 1,2,3.
I really do want want the homosexual to win.
Rank in the PRIMARY order. Wilson’s campaign messaging is better at reaching a larger audience than Bronson and Taylor. Its showing. We really should only have One Republican running for Governor. But since we don’t we need to still be unified in our order of ranking the three. I hope more likely Republican candidate voting voters see that too, we can’t just rank our favorites in any order. Majority still must be unified as we would by only voting one. Do not rank their opponents!
What order are you ranking them?
Wilson, Bronson, Taylor?
Yes, Wilson, Bronson, Taylor . By Math probability. since Wilson did gather more voters Even out of twelve other candidates which is Incredible. Probability is her campaign messaging will continue adding voters
I’m sorry that there isn’t just one Republican candidate. Under future RCV elections R voters need to unify behind one candidate. The only good that’ll come to Republican voters from RCV method is it can teach Republican voters how to unify like the Democrat voters already know.
Will rank so, as will my wife.
Thank you.
Ditto x 4.
Ditto.
Polls generally don’t mean a lot. you can buy pretty much any poll result you want. I’ll come clean here and say that, in a perfect world, Wilson wouldn’t be my first choice. This isn’t a perfect world. Blathering on about Chris Tuck, or claiming that Wilson in the lead is “getting old” is just plain stupid. Going into the general election as if it’s the primary is an automatic fail. Bronson can’t win. Taylor can’t win. I was on MRAK when everyone was on there arguing over Nick and Sarah. Mary walked with the house seat. Had everyone ranked Nick first and Sarah second, Mary never would have won. Wilson, JKT, or spoiler. Those are your choices. That’s grim, but it’s real. The only realistic chance we have is for everyone to move in the same direction. Rank all three, IN THEIR PRIMARY ORDER. That is our only clear shot. We need to take it.
Yes. Exactly.
“ The only realistic chance we have is for everyone to move in the SAME direction. Rank all three, IN THEIR PRIMARY ORDER. That is our only clear shot. We need to take it.” M.John.
No mixing up the order because it’ll only increase odds against electing a Republican.
Don’t hold your breath that THIS time the yes votes will finally repeal RCV. It’s going to be AGAIN close. Neck n Neck because the voting Alaskans (and inactive registered voters) hearts have change that much within these last two years.
Republican voters and their undeclared supporters have to learn to unify behind ONE candidate for future elections using RCV method Until AKDemocrats get tired of it that their scheme isn’t working and they themselves get rid of it. Because Republicans members learned to unify.
Not sure how any of these comments will help anything. Polls are ALWAYS skewed, fact. Therefore I believe NONE if them. No one has a crystal ball, fact. You can play with numbers all you want, it doesn’t matter. Ask Trump!
Wilson has an extensive and well documented record as a failed and deceitful business person. Just like Trump.
(Today’s ADN has a story about her past financial failures)
The college Jonathan started in Sitka is a total $ loser.
A playground for the children of Coastal elites.
Take a breath Evan. By definition she is not a failed business person, because her business is still in operation and making money. At least pick a position you can defend. You’re not related to Landfill are you? His BDS is off the charts!! SMH.
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