Suzanne Downing: Alaska is on the verge of a Democrat trifecta, and Republicans are helping make it happen

By SUZANNE DOWNING

Aug. 26, 2026 – Alaska is approaching a political transformation that conservatives need to recognize before it is too late: The state could emerge from the November election with a Democratic governor and Democratic control of both chambers of the Legislature.

In other words, a Democrat trifecta.

That has not happened in modern Alaska history. The closest comparison comes from the earliest years of statehood, when Democrat William Egan was governor and Democrats overwhelmingly controlled the Legislature. And I mean overwhelmingly: The first state Senate had roughly 18 Democrats and two Republicans, while the first House included 34 Democrats or Democrat-aligned members, five Republicans and one independent.

Alaska may now be drifting back toward the political conditions of those early years. Ranked-choice voting has done its magic for the Democrats, but Republicans are also doing plenty to help.

Start with the governor’s race.

Bernadette Wilson emerged from the primary as the leading Republican candidate. Under a traditional party-primary system, Republicans would have selected their nominee, Democrats would have selected theirs, and the two parties would have met in November with clearly defined candidates. It would have been Bernadette Wilson vs. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.

That is not how Alaska’s jungle primary works these days under ranked-choice voting. All candidates run together, and the top four advance regardless of party. The general election then becomes another multicandidate contest conducted through ranked-choice voting.

That means Dave Bronson can remain on the ballot even though Republican voters have already placed Wilson ahead of him.

Bronson has now made it clear that he will not withdraw. He dug in his heels and won’t let that uppity woman become governor. That decision is particularly consequential because he had signed a Republican vetting document agreeing to leave the race if he was not the leading Republican after the primary. He has chosen a different course: To break his promise.

His continued candidacy does more than divide the Republican vote. It ensures that the Republican side will remain consumed by an internal war.

Bronson has attacked Wilson publicly and, according to numerous accounts that have been told to me recently, he’s attacking her personally in private conversations. Opposition research from his team has been slipped to political operatives and bloggers, while third-party political organizations aligned with Bronson’s campaign continue working to damage the Republican frontrunner.

The message is becoming unmistakable: If Bronson cannot win the Republican contest, he appears prepared to make it as difficult as possible for Wilson to win the general election.

That is a formula for electing Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins or Tom Begich.

The two leading Democrats collectively demonstrated substantial strength in the primary, and no infighting. They now have the luxury of watching Republicans tear each other apart. Every dollar spent attacking Wilson, every damaging rumor passed to a blogger and every personal grievance carried into November makes it easier for Democrats to capture the Governor’s Office.

Under the former primary system, Bronson’s campaign would effectively be over. Wilson would be the Republican nominee, and Republicans would have several months to consolidate around her.

Under ranked-choice voting, Bronson remains in the driver’s seat. He can continue splitting first-choice Republican votes and encouraging his supporters to withhold their second-choice rankings from Wilson. Even if he has no viable path to becoming governor, he retains the power to prevent another Republican from winning.

This is not an accidental defect in Alaska’s election system. It’s not a bug, it’s a feature. It is one of the predictable consequences of eliminating party primaries.

The legislative picture is just as alarming for conservatives in Alaska.

Ten of the Alaska Senate’s 20 seats are on the ballot this year: Districts A, C, E, G, I, K, M, O, Q and S.

Republicans appear likely to retain A, M, O and Q. Democrats or members who can reliably be expected to organize and vote with them are positioned to control C, E, G, I, K and S.

That count includes Sen. Cathy Giessel in the Democratic column for governing purposes. Giessel continues to carry a Republican registration, but her political conduct has moved sharply away from the Republican base. She has repeatedly joined Democrats to form a majority, helped shut conservative Republicans out of meaningful authority, and demonstrated that her strongest political hostility is reserved for members of her own party.

Giessel could even emerge as Senate president again. This is likely.

Party labels become meaningless when a Republican uses her position to organize with Democrats, elevate Democratic priorities and marginalize Republican legislators. Conservatives should measure lawmakers by how they govern, not simply by the letter printed beside their names.

The House outlook may be worse.

A district-by-district analysis currently points toward approximately 23 seats for Democrats or Democrat-aligned candidates and only 17 for Republicans. If Rep. Mia Costello loses House District 15, the Democratic side could grow to 24.

That estimate even assumes Rep. Chuck Kopp remains with Republicans when the House organizes. He’s been siding with the Democrats for years. But if Democrats hold 23 or 24 seats, they will not need Kopp or any other Republican crossover vote. They will be able to select the speaker, control the committees, write the budget and determine which bills receive hearings entirely on their own.

Some prospective Republican victories also feel hollow because experience has shown that not every legislator elected with an “R” beside his or her name will remain loyal to Republican voters when organization time arrives.

But with a sufficiently large Democratic majority, those crossover Republicans may become irrelevant. Democrats will no longer need to construct a nominally bipartisan coalition. They can govern outright — just them and the so-called independents.

Put the three pieces together: Kreiss-Tomkins or Begich as governor, a Democrat-controlled Senate and a House with as many as 23 or 24 Democrat-aligned members.

That is the trifecta.

It would give the political left control over the operating budget, capital spending, taxes, resource policy, education funding, judicial appointments, state boards and commissions, election law and the redistricting process that follows the 2030 census. A Democratic governor would also possess veto authority, appointment power and the ability to shape every major policy fight in Juneau.

For the conservatives who work, build businesses, develop Alaska’s resources and keep the state’s economic wheels turning, this is not an abstract partisan argument. It is a real and present political danger.

Ranked-choice voting was marketed as a less divisive way to conduct elections. Yet the Republican governor’s race illustrates precisely how it can prolong division. Instead of settling the contest in a primary, it carries defeated intraparty candidates into the general election and gives them additional months to attack the party’s frontrunner.

The political parties no longer select their standard-bearers. Candidates rejected by most members of their own political coalition can stay on the ballot, continue raising and spending money, and help elect the opposing party.

The system is working exactly as its architects intended.

Alaska conservatives are now in danger of losing not merely a governing coalition, but their numerical ability to stop the left. The state could return to a political alignment not seen since the opening years of statehood, when Democrats controlled nearly everything.

And if that happens, Republicans will not be able to say they were not warned.

The danger is visible. The numbers are in front of us. The path to a Democratic trifecta is open.

Dave Bronson’s decision to remain in the race makes that path wider. His misogyny has got the best of him at this point.

Suzanne Downing is the founder and editor of The Alaska Story and is a longtime Alaskan.