By SUZANNE DOWNING
Aug. 11, 2026 – With just seven days remaining before Alaska’s Aug. 18 primary ends, a polling average shows Republican Bernadette Wilson firmly atop the state’s crowded field of GOP candidates and positioned for a November contest against Democrat Tom Begich.
The PollsMax Alaska primary average, updated Monday, places Begich first at 18.3%, followed by Wilson at 13.7% and former Democrat Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 12.9%.
The rest of the field is in single digits. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson is fourth at 9.1%, followed closely by former Gov. Bill Walker at 7.2% and former Republican Sen. Click Bishop at 7.1%.
Other Republican candidates divide the rest of the GOP vote and are not included in the PollsMax charts.
On the Democrat side, Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, longtime political allies, combine for 31.2% of the primary vote in the PollsMax average. With few other prominent Democrats in the race, that number may be close to the party’s current ceiling, while the Republican vote remains divided among numerous candidates.
Alaska’s jungle primary sends the top four finishers to the November general election, regardless of party. The state’s unusual ranked-choice voting is then used to determine the winner.
If the PollsMax average holds, Begich, Wilson, Kreiss-Tomkins and Bronson would advance. Walker and Bishop, however, are each within about two percentage points of Bronson, leaving the fight for the fourth position unsettled within the margin of error.
The polling average deserves some caution, since much of the publicly available polling in the Alaska governor’s race has been conducted by Democrat-aligned organizations or for Democrat clients. Public Policy Polling and Change Research, both generally associated with Democratic campaigns and organizations, have provided some of the more recent numbers.
Even with that polling mix, Wilson has stayed consistently in the front of the Republican pack since her announcement in May of 2025.
PollsMax’s separate general-election forecast is considerably more favorable to Wilson. Its Aug. 10 model rates Alaska “Likely Republican” and gives the Republican an 84.3% chance of winning.
In the modeled Wilson-Begich matchup, Wilson receives a projected 54.9% of the vote to Begich’s 45.1%, a Republican advantage of 9.8 percentage points.
For historical reference, in 2022, Democrat Les Gara received 24.2% of the November vote, while former Gov. Bill Walker received 20.7%. Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy won with over 50.2% of the final vote, and Republican Charlie Pierce was 4.5%.
The forecast is not itself a poll, and Alaska’s nominees have not yet been determined. PollsMax says its forecasts are produced through 100,000 daily simulations that incorporate polling and other political fundamentals. The Alaska calculation therefore represents the model’s assessment of a likely Wilson-Begich contest, not a measurement of how Alaskans have already voted.
What PollsMax says about other gubernatorial races
The national PollsMax governor map currently projects Republicans holding 26 governorships after the 2026 elections, compared with 24 for Democrats.
Among the more notable Republican projections, Rep. Byron Donalds is favored over Democrat David Jolly in Florida. Donalds was one of the earliest national political figures to endorse Bernadette Wilson. He is favored 53.5% to 46.6%, with an 84.3% probability of winning. Florida’s governor’s office is open because Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited.
In Kansas, PollsMax projects Republican state Senate President Ty Masterson defeating Democrat Cindy Holscher, 52.4% to 47.6%. That would move the governor’s office from Democratic to Republican control after Gov. Laura Kelly leaves office due to term limits.
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to win Ohio’s open governor’s race with 52.6%, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is favored for another term in Texas with 53.8% and an 88.6% chance of victory.
New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte is in an even stronger position. PollsMax projects the Republican incumbent defeating Democrat Cinde Warmington, 55.2% to 44.8%, and gives Ayotte more than a 92% chance of winning.
Not every Republican prospect is secure. Wisconsin is essentially tied in the model, with Republican Tom Tiffany at 50.1% and Democrat Missy Hughes at 50%.
Georgia is another toss-up, with Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson separated by only a fraction of a percentage point.
For Alaska, the immediate question is not November but who survives next Tuesday.
Tom Begich has consolidated much of the Democratic vote, while Wilson, Bronson, Bishop and the other Republican candidates are competing for pieces of a much larger but fragmented Republican electorate. Wilson’s advantage is that she is currently leading that field. Her challenge is making sure her supporters turn out in a primary election in which participation is traditionally low.
What is unclear is whether after Tuesday, Kreiss-Tomkins will join the Tom Begich ticket as his lieutenant governor candidate, which would open up another slot in the final four.
The PollsMax numbers are a snapshot, not a result. But one week before Alaskans narrow the governor’s race to four candidates, they show Wilson in the strongest position among Republicans, and heavily favored to beat Tom Begich in November.
PollsMax also shows Congressman Nick Begich winning for Congress in November with the odds being over 89.6%, and Sen. Dan Sullivan winning again for Senate, with his odds of winning at 82.6%.
10 thoughts on “Pollsmaxxing: Average puts Bernadette Wilson atop crowded Republican field, model gives her 84% chance in November”
I bet you their guesses would top the leading Republican if only there wasn’t so many other Republicans to take-away the votes
The AKGOP and other likely R voters must be united behind One candidate as their first choice to win. We don’t have any other choices. Democrats already know how to play the game of unification, they been playing it for decades. Its Alaska Republicans and likely other R voters who still need to get used to unifying like big government Republicans uniting with smaller government republicans, pro choice republicans with prolife republicans, atheist or agnostic republicans with evangelical republicans, union republicans with private sector republicans to come together for the One candidate who cares the most about maintaining a Republic form of government.
A baby boomer like Tom Begich can’t run against someone like a millennial like Bernadette or Johnathon, he’ll look his age OLD and typical greedy boomer and no one cares how much younger his Lt Governor. Even Democrats are getting restless to see US Senator Lisa Murkowski replaced just like when Republicans were restless to see Don Young replaced by someone younger.
Baby boomers? Your stage curtains have closed on your act.
PollsMax is an aggregator, not a pollster. It’s just averaging the existing polls, of which there aren’t that many, and some are very old. Not a reliable indicator of anything, but that never seems to be a problem for you.
This article states it clearly that it is an aggregator and provides links so you may look at all the data. Thank you for being so smart. – sd
Republicans should consider voting for JKT in the primary. In the general election she will be easier to beat by a Republican.
Alaska is not ready for a sissyboy LGBTQ as their governor. Pete Buttegeige needs to come and rescue this poor little feller.
Recently saw an ad for the poof where he takes a couple shots at Dunleavy.
Why?
I think little jonny is simply trying to get name recognition for senate in ‘28. I think that’s his real goal.
Surely everyone at this point sees clearly why democrats fought so hard to force this dirty shell game on the people of Alaska.
I’m voting Dave Bronson for Governor who is leading in the polls.
Bummer, we still have no idea what she stands for. She’s playing the “no stated principles” game. Of course, maybe that strategy is working for her. I’ll still vote for Bronson/Church, the pair I know will actually do something productive.
Wilson will continue to be directed by folks like Treadwell and Murkowski. When key questions are dodged, that reveals all you need to know.
Don’t go on the record about controversial issues because that hurts future prospects for Congressional office.