By SUZANNE DOWNING
Aug. 29, 2026 – Alaska’s public opinion polls correctly identified the four candidates who would advance from the Aug. 18 primary, but none captured the final order at the top of the field.
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 36,961 votes, or 22.52%, according to the Alaska Division of Elections’ final scheduled unofficial count. Democrat Tom Begich was second with 34,149 votes, or 20.80%.
Republican Bernadette Wilson finished third with 16,456 votes, or 10.02%, followed by former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson with 13,349 votes, or 8.13%.
Those were the same four candidates most surveys had consistently placed in the advancing group. The major miss was Kreiss-Tomkins, who substantially outperformed every publicly released poll and overtook Begich for first place. With more money than any other candidate in Alaska history for the governor’s race, he deployed artificial intelligence into a sweeping get-out-the-vote campaign that other candidates were not able to achieve.
Polling Alaska’s governor race was never going to be easy. Seventeen candidates, including 12 Republicans, two Democrats and three independents or nonpartisans — appeared together on one jungle primary ballot. Only the top four advanced to the November ranked-choice general election.
The field also changed during the campaign. Democrat Matt Claman withdrew after appearing in several surveys, while former Gov. Bill Walker and Lesil McGuire entered the race late. Most of the public polling was conducted weeks before Election Day, leaving little information about voter movement during the final month.
The clearest polling success was identifying the four finalists.
Alaska Survey Research specifically projected that Begich, Wilson, Kreiss-Tomkins, and Bronson were the most likely candidates to advance. Change Research and Public Policy Polling also showed those four at or near the top, although Change placed Walker slightly ahead of Bronson in its July survey.
The polls also detected the race’s central structural feature: Democratic voters were concentrating behind two candidates while Republican voters were dividing among a much larger field.
Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich ultimately collected 43.32% of the governor vote between them. Wilson, Bronson, Treg Taylor, Click Bishop, Adam Crum and Shelley Hughes divided most of the Republican vote beneath them.
Where the polls struggled was measuring the precise size of each candidate’s support.
A Dittman Research survey circulated by the Bronson campaign showed Begich leading with 18%, Kreiss-Tomkins at 13%, Wilson at 9%, Bronson at 7%, Bishop and Walker at 6% each, Hughes and Crum at 4%, and Taylor at 2%. Another 20% were unsure.
That poll, conducted six weeks before the primary, came remarkably close on Wilson, Bronson and Bishop. Wilson finished at 10.02%, about one point above the survey. Bronson finished at 8.13%, also roughly one point higher, while Bishop’s 7.01% result was about one point above his poll number.
Dittman also came reasonably close to predicting the votes for Tom Begich, who finished less than three points above his 18% showing.
Its largest misses were Kreiss-Tomkins and Taylor. Kreiss-Tomkins finished 9.5 percentage points above his 13% poll result, while Taylor’s 7.26% finish was more than five points higher than his 2% showing.
But the survey was conducted before Claman withdrew on June 27. Claman had 5% in the poll, and Kreiss-Tomkins appears to have been one of the principal beneficiaries as Democratic voters consolidated.
Alaska Survey Research’s June 30-July 1 survey of 1,528 registered voters showed Begich at about 20%, Wilson at 15%, Kreiss-Tomkins at 12.2%, Bronson at 11%, Walker at 9.4%, Bishop at 9.3% and Crum at 7%.
ASR came within about one point of Begich’s final result and correctly named the four advancing candidates. But it underestimated Kreiss-Tomkins by more than 10 points and overstated Wilson, Walker and Bishop.
Change Research surveyed 604 likely voters July 17-19. It found Begich at 17%, Kreiss-Tomkins at 15%, Wilson at 14%, Walker at 7%, Bronson at 6% and Bishop at 4%, with 27% undecided.
Change came closer than the other major surveys to detecting Kreiss-Tomkins’ upward movement, although he still finished 7.5 points above its estimate. It underestimated Begich by nearly four points and overstated Wilson by approximately four.
Public Policy Polling’s June 24-25 survey, sponsored by the Kreiss-Tomkins campaign, showed Begich at 16%, Kreiss-Tomkins and Bronson at 13% each, Wilson at 12%, Bishop at 10% and Walker at 8%. Twenty-seven percent selected another candidate or remained undecided.
PPP also correctly placed the eventual four finalists near the top, but it underestimated both Democrats and overestimated Bronson, Wilson, Bishop and Walker.
The consistent blind spot across the surveys was Kreiss-Tomkins. He registered between approximately 8% and 15% in most public polls but finished with 22.52%.
Tom Begich, by comparison, was easier for pollsters to measure. His final 20.80% was within or near the range found in several surveys.
The conclusion is that Alaska’s polls were directionally accurate but numerically uneven.
Certification is scheduled for Monday. The Alaska Division of Elections’ report shows 401 of 403 precincts reporting in Friday’s final scheduled update.
14 thoughts on “Polls got Alaska governor finalists right, but missed JKT’s stealth late rise to first place”
There it is. A strong straight woman v.
a weak homosexual man. Gonna be quite the race.
This is clearly very important to you, Victor/ Victoria, you talk about this often! Totally not an indication of anything whatsoever!
Ittybitty,
Yes it is important. Homosexual men, lesbians, trannies, etc. are very confused people. I’ve treated many in my psychiatric offices. They don’t understand their own problems and that why they come to me. And its not just gender confusion. They are displaced by their own families. They are very lonely people and only in the past decade and a half have they coalesced for power and control. Now, they are everywhere, and in some cases ready to assert themselves violently. They have a will to punish straight people. Better get used to it because their numbers are growing. This is by design from radical feminists and communists from the 60’s and 70’s. They are hellbent to take over the reins of our society. And they appear to be succeeding.
Dr Dan. You’re phony as hell. I think you’re a Christian nationalist homophobic anti-Muslim misogynist gun nut living in Houston in a ranch style double wide with the curtains pulled. Prove me wrong. Prove me wrong Dr Dan, where do you practice and what’s your last name?
Evan, I think you’re a homosexual Muslim terrorist living in Tehran and subsisting on halal goat meat and employed as an IUD bomb builder. Prove me wrong!! Post your address, occupation, and employer! Now!
Singh needs an appointment with Dr. Dan. He’s been locked down in the basement with male porn magazines and cases of toilet paper for too many years. Insanity has settled in.
Would you think Boaz in the bible was a homosexual because he wasn’t married in his forties. He just had higher standards than most of the men of his day.
People actually believe political polls? LMAO
I’m not surprised. I expected it. I thought it would be JKT 1 and Bernedette coming in Tom Begich 2 place and not third. I think Jonathon Kriess Tompkins will be Alaska’s next Governor. AKGOP leaders and staff going into September this Monday when October is when victory is Clinched meaning the race is done in October. they in the AKGoP All still hadn’t got a strategy nor the humility to do the right thing for the survival of an AKGOP.
Suzanne, I ask you to kindly explain what you mean in the headline by “John Tomkins stealth late rise to first place?” That language gives the impression he did something wrong. I never saw or heard of anything except the heavy contributions he received from California supporters. What am I missing.
As to John Tomkins’ family status, every Alaskan governor ever elected has openly shown those details to the voters. If, as rumored, Mr. Tomkins is a homosexual then he should proudly stand on that fact. After all, isn’t their motto, “Pride?”
Suzanne, kindly explain what you mean in the headline by “John Tomkins’ stealth late rise to first place?” That language gives the impression he did something wrong. I never saw or heard of anything except the suspicious heavy contributions he received from California supporters. What am I missing?
.
As to John Tomkins’ family status, every Alaskan governor ever elected has openly shown family details to the voters. If, as rumored, Mr. Tomkins is a homosexual then he should proudly stand on that fact. After all, isn’t their motto, “Pride?”
“……he deployed artificial intelligence into a sweeping get-out-the-vote campaign……..”
So how does that work? Does a computer trick morons into voting via subliminal messaging or something?
Advertisements on tv, radio, and computers seem to have done so for decades, billions of dollars are spent every election cycle in furthering that very conclusion.
I find it interesting that Suzanne Downing of The Alaska Story is pushing hard for people to be angry at Bronson for not dropping out of the Alaska Governor race and is pushing Bernadette Wilson hard. Bernadette Wilson was one of the originators of the second try to repeal Alaska’s Ranked Choice Voting, so she should be knowledgeable on how RCV works…right? Don’t you think she’d correct her buddy Suzanne on how RCV works, instead of allowing Suzanne to be constantly putting out misinformation about how RCV works?
For your information:
RCV doesn’t split the vote – it carries it to the next upper choice that you ranked. I’ll use the governor race as an example:
First choice: Bronson
Second choice: Wilson
Third choice: whatever Republican got moved up after Begich had suspended (dropped out?) of the race.
Other candidate is the democrat.
As the initial votes are counted, the candidate with the least amount of votes at the end of round one is removed (my third choice) and those votes from that candidate are applied to Wilson’s count.
Next round of counts begin. If Wilson does not get as many votes as Bronson, then Wilson is removed from the race and all of her votes go to Bronson and increases his votes from his original count.
Bronson’s votes would be compared with the democrat’s counts to see who won the race. Hopefully, Bronson the Republican won, in part thanks to the vote being carried from the third candidate, through the second candidate and added to Bronson’s count.