By SUZANNE DOWNING
July 7, 2026 – A New York Times/Siena College poll has found incumbent Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan holding a narrow lead over former Congresswoman Mary Peltola in Alaska’s US Senate race, a finding that runs counter to recent campaign messaging from Peltola, who has repeatedly told supporters she is leading in the polls.
The statewide survey of 593 likely Alaska voters, conducted June 15-29, found Sullivan with 47% support compared to Peltola’s 45%, with 2% backing another candidate and 5% undecided. The poll carries a margin of error of approximately ±4.9 percentage points, meaning the race remains statistically close.
This is a strong reason why the Democrats have placed another Dan Sullivan in the race — to shave a few votes off of the Real Dan Sullivan.
The same survey also found Republican Congressman Nick Begich in a much stronger position in his re-election race. Begich led Democrat Matt Schultz by 51% to 39% after leaners were included, a 12-point advantage.
The Senate race findings stand in contrast to recent statements from Peltola’s campaign. In social media posts this summer, Peltola has told supporters she was “5 points up in the polls” and has characterized herself as the frontrunner in the race, citing favorable surveys conducted by Alaska Survey Research.
The difference highlights an emerging split in Alaska polling.
Alaska Survey Research has released surveys showing Peltola with leads of roughly five percentage points, while the nationally recognized New York Times/Siena poll now shows Sullivan ahead.
New York Times/Siena polls are regarded as the nation’s highest-rated polling operations. They rely primarily on live telephone interviews, extensive demographic weighting, and detailed public disclosure of its methodology. Interviewers placed more than 467,000 calls to over 174,000 voters across six Senate battleground states, with more than 95% of respondents contacted on cell phones.
Even so, Alaska has historically been one of the more difficult states to survey accurately. Its vast geography, remote communities, high percentage of cell-phone-only households, significant Alaska Native population, and large bloc of independent voters create challenges that many polling organizations acknowledge.
There is also recent history suggesting caution when interpreting Alaska polling results.
The last time New York Times/Siena conducted a major Alaska survey was in October 2020. That poll correctly identified both Donald Trump and Dan Sullivan as the likely winners but understated Republican support in each race.
For president, the poll showed Trump leading Joe Biden 45% to 39%, a six-point advantage. Trump ultimately won Alaska by just over 10 percentage points, outperforming the poll by roughly four points.
The Senate race followed a similar pattern.
In 2020, New York Times/Siena measured Sullivan ahead of independent-backed Democrat Al Gross 45% to 37%, an eight-point lead. Sullivan ultimately defeated Gross by nearly 13 percentage points, again running roughly four to five points stronger than the survey projected.
That history does not necessarily predict what will happen in 2026, but it demonstrates that while the poll correctly identified the winners, it underestimated Republican performance in Alaska during its last statewide survey.
The current poll also paints a generally Republican-leaning picture of Alaska’s electorate.
Among likely voters, 51% identify or lean Republican compared with 40% who identify or lean Democratic. Republicans also hold an edge on the preferred party to control the U.S. Senate, 49% to 41%.
The survey found voters evenly divided on Sullivan personally, with 47% holding a favorable opinion and 45% viewing him unfavorably. Peltola’s favorability was also closely split, with 51% expressing a favorable opinion and 42% an unfavorable one among respondents who completed the full questionnaire.
With four months remaining before the November election, both campaigns are expected to continue pointing to polling that best supports their respective narratives.
For now, however, one of the nation’s most closely watched polling organizations shows Sullivan—not Peltola—holding the advantage in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, while also placing Begich in a comparatively stronger position in the state’s lone congressional contest.
One thought on “NYT/Siena poll shows Sullivan ahead in Alaska Senate race, contradicting Peltola campaign’s claims”
Polls are now used to lie to the voters and make it look like the candidate that pays foe the poll is winning. We need to remember the only valid poll is Election Day.