Fairbanks is losing students – a 5% drop in enrollment in just one year

Enrollment in the Fairbanks North Star Borough School District has fallen sharply again, part of a long-term demographic shift and putting pressure on budget decisions.

According to figures presented Nov. 4 by the district’s senior research analyst, enrollment is down by 589 students compared to last year, a 5% decline in just one year.

Over the past 20 years, enrollment has dropped by roughly 23%, plunging from near the mid-2000s peak of around 14,500–15,000 students to just over 11,000 today.

This year’s drop is larger than had been expected; earlier projections in September estimated a loss of roughly 400 students and about $2.7 million in reduced state funding.

The sharpest losses are in kindergarten and the elementary grades, reflecting a demographic reality reshaping school systems across Alaska: fewer children being born, except in Native populations.

View the entire report at this link.

Alaska’s birth rate has been declining steadily for a decade, falling from 15.5 births per 1,000 people in 2014 to roughly 12–12.6 in recent years. As families across the state have fewer children and some leave Alaska for economic opportunity elsewhere, districts are seeing significant long-term enrollment erosion.

In addition to lower birth rates, there is the issue of out-migration to the Lower 48, a shrinking school-age population, and more families choosing homeschool or private school settings, with homeschoolers now accounting for roughly one-fifth of borough students. Economic charts show a roughly 1% population decline in the borough overall, with a greater proportional drop among school-aged children.

The continued enrollment slide has implications for staffing and facilities. Earlier budget drafts called for eliminating more than 60 teaching positions and 90 support staff, and the district closed three elementary schools at the end of last school year. With state funding tied to student counts, fewer students mean fewer dollars. It could mean deeper cuts if the trend continues.

Fairbanks is not alone in facing declining enrollment, but the sustained drop over two decades, accelerated this year, underscores the wider challenge facing Alaska’s public schools: fewer families, fewer students, and a shrinking population of young children entering the system.