THE ALASKA STORY
Sept. 28, 2026 – A meme circulating online shows President Donald Trump at a laptop and the words, “This war in Iran is very expensive.” The punch line: “But not as expensive as the fraud in Minnesota and California.”
The meme is not wrong, depending on whether you add just the fraud uncovered so far, or potential fraud that prosecutors still believe may be uncovered in those two states alone.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the conflict with Iran had cost the Department of Defense about $38 billion as of Aug. 1. That includes replacing munitions and equipment lost in battle, increased flying hours, operations and fuel. CBO estimates that each additional month could cost $2 billion to $3 billion at the levels of fighting it examined, and more if the conflict intensifies. Its figure does not capture every federal cost or the wider effects of higher energy prices.
Now consider California. Its Employment Development Department reported that roughly $20 billion in pandemic unemployment benefits were likely fraudulent. In an April update, EDD said it had recovered nearly $6 billion. Money recovered represents funds clawed back, but the cost of that fraud and the clawing back is not fully known.
Minnesota has its own documented scandal. Federal prosecutors brought the Feeding Our Future case as a roughly $250 million child-nutrition fraud scheme. Other cases involving public programs have followed. But the number that moves the meme into the war’s price range is far larger: In December, a federal prosecutor said that about half of the roughly $18 billion spent on 14 Minnesota-run programs since 2018 was likely lost to fraud. That suggests a potential $9 billion.
Put California’s $20 billion estimate alongside Minnesota’s potential $9 billion and the result is about $29 billion, which is lower, but not that much lower than the CBO’s $38 billion war estimate as of Aug. 1.
The meme makes a fair point about scale. Fraud in government programs can consume sums measured in tens of billions, and cases that have not been detected cannot yet be counted. The defensible conclusion is that the publicly estimated totals are in the same ballpark. The meme is not completely correct, but not completely incorrect either.
14 thoughts on “Does fraud in Minnesota and California cost taxpayers more than Iran war? The numbers behind a viral meme”
Suzanne, I don’t understand how the problems in Minnesota and California have made my living expenses so difficult? Did gasoline, diesel, and groceries go up because of unemployment fraud?
Perhaps, Damon, you should check in with Joe Biden concerning inflation. Gas prices were higher under his presidency, and the price of oil affects everything that gets moved by a truck. Or is your memory not that long?
Trump started this inflation via printing currency galore with covid checks and then followed it up with his betrayal of the 2024 coalition by starting an optional war for a foreign country. The later is a near traitorous act and will cost the republicans dearly in five weeks. It is true that Biden poured gasoline on the fire and was a terrible president.
It did not have to be this way. Imagine Trump keeping his promises and the massive support he would have. He could tour the country to enormous crowds cheering the restoration of our dear country.
Instead we have Bush 3. I and many others did not vote for Bush 3.
Most of the inflation since 2020 was caused by the idiotic Biden regime decision to shut down oil and natural gas exploration, production and distribution. This immediately jacked the cost by $2-3/gallon for liquid fuels with similar increases in natural gas. We’ve been printing $$$ since quantitative easing following the 2008 crash with no impact on inflation at all.
There are a lot of people tired of the war with Iran. There are a lot of us who are similarly tired of Iran. We will see who turns out next month. Cheers –
How does one prevent fraud in government programs? YOU NEED TO HIRE MORE BUREAUCRATS TO REVIEW APPLICATIONS
No, you cancel the program and fire the bureaucrats currently there.
.
See how easy that is?
Right on. We need massive decentralization.
And it will happen. One way or another.
What’s the point of this article?
It’s an intelligence test. You just flunked.
An intelligence test huh? So, explain it to a simpleton like me then. Is the article equating the cost of welfare fraud in MN and CA to the cost of the Iran War – meaning there’s no difference between the two? I’d agree to that, they’re both morally bankrupt and people need to be held accountable.
Or is the meme intended to say that the welfare fraud is a worse problem than the Iran War, because the extrapolated estimate of the fraud is nearly the same as the direct costs Iran War? If so, the meme ignores the much larger estimates of the indirect costs of the Iran War. Not to mention the human cost (but who cares! Most of the dead people are brown, am I right?!), the damage to the global economy…the damage to our reputation…etc..etc…
The point is that thing on your head, Bill
what cost of a planet without life, a people who worship death to all including themselves.
the bully left to build an army with weapons to kill the planet.
where does the blame lie, with all the presidents that left them to grow and some who gave them plane loads of money to do it.
cost of fixing the problem may be high but what is the alternative, hope they go away or confront the bully?
loss of the greatest nation in history?
we are also being destroyed from within, immigrants that hate America and schools brainwashing our children.
it is a fair comparison war cost and fraud cost we just expect the fraud and bitch about the cost of war
The funny thing about the leftist talking point, and it is indeed a leftist talking point, with a “war of choice” or an “optional war” is that all wars are choices and are optional. One can always choose to surrender, one can always opt out of war. The problem is the other guy always has the option to choose war. If you think that what is happening in Europe should happen here then it explains why you think war is optional and something to choose, that is your choice…to surrender, or maybe you support the colonization of the western world by a primitive culture? And some folks have the gall to talk about treason while supporting those who would destroy all of Western Civilization. It takes a level of mind numbing mental gymnastics to get to the point where someone claiming to be on the right finds themselves aligned with hard-core leftists and outright communists, but then pure unadulterated hatred makes a lot of people lose their minds.
There were people on the far left who opposed the US involvement in WW2.
They preferred Germany take all of Europe and entirely decimating the Jewish population.
Even the wall street journal and New York times were in approval of Germany in early days before someone discovered the showers at the “camps” they built were deadly gas “ovens”.