THE ALASKA STORY
Sept. 28, 2026 – A meme circulating online shows President Donald Trump at a laptop and the words, “This war in Iran is very expensive.” The punch line: “But not as expensive as the fraud in Minnesota and California.”
The meme is not wrong, depending on whether you add just the fraud uncovered so far, or potential fraud that prosecutors still believe may be uncovered in those two states alone.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the conflict with Iran had cost the Department of Defense about $38 billion as of Aug. 1. That includes replacing munitions and equipment lost in battle, increased flying hours, operations and fuel. CBO estimates that each additional month could cost $2 billion to $3 billion at the levels of fighting it examined, and more if the conflict intensifies. Its figure does not capture every federal cost or the wider effects of higher energy prices.
Now consider California. Its Employment Development Department reported that roughly $20 billion in pandemic unemployment benefits were likely fraudulent. In an April update, EDD said it had recovered nearly $6 billion. Money recovered represents funds clawed back, but the cost of that fraud and the clawing back is not fully known.
Minnesota has its own documented scandal. Federal prosecutors brought the Feeding Our Future case as a roughly $250 million child-nutrition fraud scheme. Other cases involving public programs have followed. But the number that moves the meme into the war’s price range is far larger: In December, a federal prosecutor said that about half of the roughly $18 billion spent on 14 Minnesota-run programs since 2018 was likely lost to fraud. That suggests a potential $9 billion.
Put California’s $20 billion estimate alongside Minnesota’s potential $9 billion and the result is about $29 billion, which is lower, but not that much lower than the CBO’s $38 billion war estimate as of Aug. 1.
The meme makes a fair point about scale. Fraud in government programs can consume sums measured in tens of billions, and cases that have not been detected cannot yet be counted. The defensible conclusion is that the publicly estimated totals are in the same ballpark. The meme is not completely correct, but not completely incorrect either.
7 thoughts on “Does fraud in Minnesota and California cost taxpayers more than Iran war? The numbers behind a viral meme”
Suzanne, I don’t understand how the problems in Minnesota and California have made my living expenses so difficult? Did gasoline, diesel, and groceries go up because of unemployment fraud?
Perhaps, Damon, you should check in with Joe Biden concerning inflation. Gas prices were higher under his presidency, and the price of oil affects everything that gets moved by a truck. Or is your memory not that long?
Trump started this inflation via printing currency galore with covid checks and then followed it up with his betrayal of the 2024 coalition by starting an optional war for a foreign country. The later is a near traitorous act and will cost the republicans dearly in five weeks. It is true that Biden poured gasoline on the fire and was a terrible president.
It did not have to be this way. Imagine Trump keeping his promises and the massive support he would have. He could tour the country to enormous crowds cheering the restoration of our dear country.
Instead we have Bush 3. I and many others did not vote for Bush 3.
How does one prevent fraud in government programs? YOU NEED TO HIRE MORE BUREAUCRATS TO REVIEW APPLICATIONS
No, you cancel the program and fire the bureaucrats currently there.
.
See how easy that is?
Right on. We need massive decentralization.
And it will happen. One way or another.
What’s the point of this article?