Cook Political Report moves needle toward Democrats in four races, but Sen. Dan Sullivan stays strong

By SUZANNE DOWNING

April 16, 2026 – A new round of US Senate race ratings from Cook Political Report suggests a shifting national landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, one that appears to be tilting, at least for now, in Democrats’ favor.

But in Alaska, the outlook remains more stable, with Sen. Dan Sullivan still holding an edge despite a well-funded challenge.

The updates were outlined in Episode 58 of the Cook Political Report’s Editors Roundtable, released April 13, where editors Jessica Taylor and Carrie Dann discussed four key Senate race shifts, all moving in a direction more favorable to Democrats.

Among the most notable changes: North Carolina’s open Senate seat, currently held by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, was moved from a Toss-up to Lean Democrat. The race is expected to feature former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley.

In Georgia, the race involving incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff was also shifted from Toss-up to Lean Democrat, reflecting strong fundraising by the Democrat and a potentially fractured Republican primary field.

Ohio, meanwhile, moved away from Republicans, according to the analysts. The race featuring now-appointed Sen. Jon Husted was downgraded from Lean Republican to Toss-up, with polling showing a tight contest against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

In Nebraska, the rating for Sen. Pete Ricketts shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, as “independent” candidate Dan Osborn mounts a challenge in a traditionally red state.

Despite these changes, Alaska’s Senate race remains in the Lean Republican category. That means Cook analysts view Sullivan as favored, but not secure, in a likely matchup against Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola.

Peltola has built significant financial strength, reporting more than $8.9 million raised in the first quarter of 2026, and has shown competitiveness in some polling — polling that has traditionally overstated the Democrat Party candidate’s support in Alaska. Still, Cook’s analysts have so far stopped short of moving the Sullivan-Peltola race into toss-up territory.

Alaska’s ranked-choice voting election system adds another layer of complexity for pollsters and prognosticators. The state’s jungle primary and ranked-choice general election can produce unpredictable outcomes. At present, there are eight candidates running for the office, including Sullivan, Peltola and:

The broader rating shifts reflect what Cook describes as a challenging national environment for Republicans. Factors discussed in the roundtable include declining approval ratings for Donald Trump, economic concerns such as rising fuel prices, and shifting voter attitudes on issues like immigration.

Even so, Cook Political Report continues to project Republicans as slight favorites to retain control of the Senate. While Democrats may be positioned for gains, the overall map remains difficult, and the most likely outcome discussed in related analysis is a modest Democratic pickup, just short of what would be needed to flip the chamber.