By BOB GRIFFIN
Sept. 29, 2028 – Winning the governor’s race won’t be easy. But it’s also not as hard as some have implied.
I’ve run the numbers and a Republican can win the Governor’s race — if we unite and rank our favorites 1,2,3.
The remaining Republican gubernatorial candidates have remarkably similar ideological perspectives. Some may have some flaws – but none of those flaws come close to the irreversible harm a far-left Governor could wreak in four years.
Alaska is a Red state, Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 2 to1. President Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024.
If we can duplicate the 2024 13-point Republican margin in the gubernatorial election, with a normal turnout for a gubernatorial election year, a Republican candidate would win with 54% of Republican voters rank all three Republican candidates.
The percentage of voters needed to rank 1,2,3 goes up if the vote differential is lower. With 10% more Republican votes – 64% of voters would need to rank 1,2,3. With an 8% differential we would need 71% participation. With a 6% differential we would need 73% to rank 1,2,3.
I’m a staunch supporter of YES on Ballot Measure 2 and I’m very much looking forward to seeing ranked choice voting going away. Like it or not though, we need to use ranked choice voting one more time to prevent a disastrous outcome for the state.
It won’t be easy, but it’s certainly not impossible. If we focus these last few weeks before the election to get the word out, we can pull it off. Alaskan voters are well known nationwide for producing improbable election results.
We can do this — if we are united in ranking our favorite Republicans 1.2,3 and encourage likeminded Alaskans to do the same.
Assumptions: Voter turnout of 167,000 matching 2022 Governor’s race. Republican voter distribution matches recent AARP poll.
Bob Griffin is on the board of Alaska Policy Forum and served on the Alaska Board of Education and Early Development.
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6 thoughts on “Bob Griffin: Ranking 1,2,3 in the governor’s race is the only path to a Republican winning”
(Sigh) yes. Sure. Collectively we do need to rank all three since two following the highest Republican vote getter didn’t leave . But there still needs to be a unified order to it. Not ranking your favorites in the order you decided but in the Primary Order the candidates votes placed them.
If I’m right at the end of Nov Election Day. Just remember Hope doesn’t end because JKT is Governor and Democrats control all three branches of Alaska’s government. To echo brother n Christ Charles Colson “ Where is the hope? The hope that each of us have is not in who governs us, or what laws are passed, or what great things that we do as a nation. Our hope is in the power of God working through the hearts of people, and that’s where our hope is in this country; that’s where our hope is in life.”
Bob Griffen is entirely correct. The only way for a Republican Governor to be elected is to rank all three on the ballot. You may prefer one Republican candidate over the other. You may also dislike one or two of the candidates. It doesn’t matter. Any of the three candidates is much more preferable than the Sitka Socialist Tompkins. Remember all those veto’s from Governor Dunleavy? If the Sitka Socialist is elected Governor, all those unsustainable socialist spending bills are coming back, including the absolute asinine proposed new State and public employee pension program. How will these new socialist programs be funded?, thru budget cuts to public safety, fish and game monitoring and enforcement, road maintenance and other cornerstone state budget programs. There will also likely be new taxes including a sales tax, personal income tax and new taxes on the oil industry – sure to slow or stop new oil and gas development. So don’t be stupid………rank all three Republican candidates, otherwise you and your family won’t like what’s coming your way.
But DON’T rank JKT on your ballot.
I agree!
Thank you!
1,2,3, not JKT
The stupid slogan may feel good to say but it will make no difference. With the current system the democrats will win. Slogan or not, don’t set yourself up with false hope. JKT will be the next governor
Just seen a ad saying how bad all threee republican are. The ad is payed for by democrat governors association so they must see a way for a republican win and it worries them. Mike svenson