Barbara Haney: Before DEC splits the borough, show North Pole the bill

By BARBARA HANEY, PhD

The state already knows where it wants to draw the line between Fairbanks and North Pole. What it hasn’t shown anyone is what that line will cost.

The Department of Environmental Conservation is taking public comment through November 30 on a proposal to split the borough’s single PM2.5 nonattainment area into a “Fairbanks area” and a “North Pole area.” The proposed regulation is two short paragraphs. It names the two areas and updates a plan revision date. That is all.

The boundary itself is not new. In 2016, the state adopted a North Pole–Fairbanks control-zone line into the State Air Quality Plan, running along Hobgoblin Lane, Prester John Drive, Sonja Street, and Badger Road. DEC’s FAQ now says the split would run “roughly” along Badger Road, but the new rule never adopts or even cites the 2016 line.

Why the split is tempting

The case for dividing the area is real. Fairbanks and Goldstream are meeting the 24-hour standard; North Pole is not. Its most recent design value, setting aside wildfire smoke, was 55 micrograms per cubic meter against a federal limit of 35.

Fairbanks would get relief from being tied to a problem it no longer has. Federal air grant money could be steered toward the neighborhoods that need it most. DEC also says the split itself creates no immediate requirement for any household to change its heat.

The state tried this once before. It asked EPA for a Badger Road split in 2015, then asked EPA to set the request aside in 2018. EPA, not the state, has the final word on any boundary change.

The economics North Pole isn’t being shown

I am an economist by training. When a government asks the public to comment on “potential costs to private persons,” it owes the public a cost estimate to comment on. This notice offers none. Its only fiscal statement is that the state won’t need a bigger appropriation.

Here is what a split does in economic terms. Today the cost of cleaning up the air is spread across the whole borough. Afterward, a much smaller population in North Pole carries the full burden of reaching a standard its monitor exceeds by more than 50 percent.

DEC’s own FAQ hints at what comes later: possible limits or deadlines for older wood stoves, and assistance programs that can require removing a stove or recording a deed restriction. Those are real costs to real families, and they will be written in the next North Pole plan, not this one. Once the line is drawn, North Pole will have far less leverage to shape that plan.

There are other questions with dollar signs attached. Transportation planners are already studying how a split could affect federal highway funding. Property sales inside the nonattainment area already carry wood-stove requirements. North Pole homeowners deserve to know how a stand-alone designation affects both before the state commits to it.

What DEC should fix

A split may be the right call. It should not be adopted on a rule this thin. Before final action, DEC should:

• Write the boundary into the regulation, or state plainly that it is the 2016 North Pole–Fairbanks control-zone line.
• Say whether each new area remains in nonattainment, and where Goldstream, now its own control zone, ends up.
• Reconcile its legal citations. The regulation cites AS 46.14.010; the public notice omits it.
• Identify every existing rule that refers to the borough-wide nonattainment area and amend it to match.
• Publish a cost analysis for North Pole households, businesses, and road funding.

Questions to DEC are due Friday, November 20. Comments close at 11:59 p.m. Monday, November 30. Hearings run 3:30 to 7:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 17 at Noel Wien Library in Fairbanks and Wednesday, November 18 at Hotel North Pole. Written comments go to dec.air.comment@alaska.gov.

North Pole can handle hard choices about its air. It should not be asked to make them without seeing the bill.

Barbara Haney, PhD, is an economist, former Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly member, and candidate for Alaska State House District 33.