Alaska’s House Democrat coalition poised to grow, Senate Democrats favored to hold

By SUZANNE DOWNING

Nov. 3, 2026 – Democrats and Democrat-caucusing independents may have enough seats to elect Alaska’s next House speaker without Republican votes, after early Wednesday returns showed them leading in 23 of the chamber’s 40 districts.

In the Senate, the existing Democrat-controlled bipartisan coalition appears positioned to retain control, with the help of cross-over Republicans.

The House majority now includes 16 Democrats, three independents and two Republicans.

It takes 21 votes to organize that chamber. Two apparent Democratic gains in Anchorage give Democrats and independents a path to that threshold on their own, provided they hold enough of their other seats and agree to caucus together. They may not need Republican crossovers such as Rep. Chuck Kopp. Our tally treats all nonpartisan and undeclared candidates as likely coalition members.

Anchorage gains put 21 within reach

Former Democratic Rep. Cliff Groh led the Republican for the Government Hill and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson seat being vacated by Republican Rep. David Nelson. In southwest Anchorage, Democrat Denny Wells had 52.4% against incumbent Republican Rep. Mia Costello with all six precincts reporting. Wells has challenged Costello twice before and appears to have flipped that seat, no additional ranking will take place.

In northern Fairbanks, Big Labor-pick Joy Beth Cottle led Republican Harmony Tomaszewski, 3,255 to 3,212, House District 34. A Cottle victory would give the Democrat coalition another seat now held by a Republican, Frank Tomaszewski.

The coalition has a seat to defend in Southwest Alaska, where outgoing House Speaker Bryce Edgmon is running for Senate. Democrat Evelynn Trefon led Republican Brenda Wilson 38.12% to 28.17% in House District 37. Independent Mark Smith had 25.35% and independent Cade Woods had 7.96%.

If Republicans overtake the current leaders in both Fairbanks and Southwest Alaska, Democrats-independents could still reach 21 if their other leads hold. They also have a potential pickup in Palmer, where independent Steve Merritt trailed Republican Rep. DeLena Johnson 31.11% to 36.14%. Republican Michael Bowles was close behind Merritt at 32.46%.

Senate coalition has votes to spare

The Senate’s 14-member majority has more room for close races to go against it. It takes 11 votes to organize the 20-seat chamber. Even if the coalition loses both open seats now held by retiring members Gary Stevens and Lyman Hoffman, it could still organize with 12 votes if its other seats and members hold.

In the Kodiak-based Senate District C, Republican Rep. Louise Stutes led Republican Heath Smith 48.1% to 39.4%, with Republican Carrie Harris at 11.6%. Stutes serves in the House coalition and is expected to join the Senate majority if elected. Smith has said he would stay outside it.

In Southwest Alaska’s Senate District S, Edgmon led Republican Darren Deacon 35.84%% to 26.88%, with Democrat Wassilie Guy at 24.72%% and nonpartisan Rick Robb at 12.19%.

The early returns reflect first choices. The Division of Elections has scheduled ranked-choice tabulation for Nov. 18, after eligible ballots are reviewed and counted. Only the closest of races will matter in the ranked-choice scenario.

Democrats were gathering in Anchorage this week to organize their majorities and assign committee seats to their members.