By SUZANNE DOWNING
June 14, 2026 – Alaska North Slope crude oil slipped below the $100-per-barrel mark on Friday, closing at approximately $99.22 per barrel and ending a three-month run of triple-digit prices that had been fueled by geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East.
For Alaska, where state government revenues remain heavily dependent on oil production, the symbolic crossing below $100 is noteworthy. It marks the first time since mid-March that Alaska’s benchmark crude has traded below the century mark.
The decline follows a remarkable spring rally that pushed Alaska North Slope crude to its highest levels in years. After spending most of 2023, 2024, and early 2026 trading largely between the $50s and $80s, prices surged in March as tensions involving Iran raised concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies and shipping routes.
On March 13, Alaska North Slope crude topped $105 per barrel for the first time since 2022. The rally accelerated through April and May, with May recording an average monthly price of $118.39 per barrel, the highest monthly average of the year.
The recent pullback appears tied largely to growing confidence that the conflict involving Iran will not significantly disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass through the narrow waterway.
As fears of a major supply interruption eased, oil traders began removing the “risk premium” that had been built into crude prices earlier this spring.
The decline has mirrored movements in global benchmark crude prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen sharply from its spring highs as ceasefire discussions and diplomatic efforts reduced concerns about an extended regional conflict.
For Alaska, the drop below $100 comes with both benefits and drawbacks.
Lower oil prices generally mean lower fuel costs for consumers and businesses … eventually. Airlines, shipping companies, commercial fishermen, miners, and Alaska families all benefit when energy prices moderate.
At the same time, every decline in oil prices reduces anticipated state revenue. Alaska’s budget remains heavily dependent on petroleum taxes and royalties, even as production levels have stabilized and new North Slope developments continue to move forward.
Still, prices remain extraordinarily strong by recent historical standards.
Prior to the March surge, Alaska North Slope crude had not traded above $100 since August 2022, during the Biden presidency. For more than three years, prices remained below that threshold, often averaging in the $60 to $80 range.
Even at Friday’s $99.22 close, Alaska oil remains far above the roughly $60 range that characterized parts of the market early this year.
The price also remains well below Alaska’s historical highs. Alaska North Slope crude reached an all-time record of $144.59 per barrel in July 2008 and exceeded $127 per barrel during the energy shock of 2022.
Oil prices will likely depend heavily on whether the current calm in the Middle East holds. If tensions remain contained and global supplies continue flowing normally, additional price softness is possible during the second half of 2026.
For Alaska policymakers debating major energy projects such as the Alaska LNG pipeline, the recent volatility serves as another reminder of how closely the state’s fortunes remain tied to global events occurring thousands of miles away. A missile launch in the Persian Gulf can still move the Alaska treasury almost as quickly as a drilling rig on the North Slope.
