National political forecasters agree that Sen. Dan Sullivan starts 2026 in the ‘Solid Republican’ win category

By SUZANNE DOWNING

National election forecasters are in rare agreement about Alaska’s 2026 U.S. Senate race: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan begins the cycle firmly in the safest category for the GOP.

As of Jan. 6, 2026, the Cook Political Report still lists Sullivan as “Solid Republican,” placing him among a group of GOP incumbents and open seats viewed as secure for Republicans this election cycle. That list includes:

• AK — Sullivan

• AL — Open

• AR — Tom Cotton

• FL — Ashley Moody

• ID — Jim Risch

• KS — Roger Marshall

• KY — Open

• LA — Bill Cassidy

• MS — Cindy Hyde-Smith

• MT — Steve Daines

• NE — Pete Ricketts

• OK — Markwayne Mullin

• SC — Lindsey Graham

• SD — Mike Rounds

• TN — Bill Hagerty

• WV — Shelley Moore Capito

• WY — Open

Cook Political Report publisher Amy Walter has noted that speculation continues over whether former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola will enter the race. Walter wrote that attention is focused on whether Peltola chooses a run for Alaska’s wide-open governor’s seat or attempts “a more uphill — but still competitive — race against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.”

Mary Peltola has earned the name “Maybe Mary” because she is still in the “maybe” category for the governor’s race or for Senate.

Rumors around Peltola have intensified in recent weeks, with reports that she has been interviewing potential campaign managers in Washington, D.C., amid pressure from national Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, to expand the 2026 Senate map. Alaska’s filing deadline is June 1, and the start of the new fundraising quarter on Jan. 1 adds urgency to any potential decision.

Still, other major prognosticators reinforce Cook’s view that Sullivan is not considered vulnerable at this stage. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rates the Alaska Senate race as “Solid Republican,” its safest category for the incumbent party. Sabato’s most recent Senate ratings update was issued in October, with no changes to Alaska since then as of early January 2026.

Those ratings align with assessments from 270toWin, which likewise categorizes Sullivan’s seat as a safe Republican hold.

The fundamentals favor the incumbent. Alaska has a strong Republican lean. President Donald Trump carried the state by double digits in 2024, and Sullivan enters the cycle with the advantages of incumbency and a sizable campaign treasury. As of September, he reported more than $4.7 million in cash on hand, and no credible challenger has yet filed to run against him.

Taken together, those factors suggest Alaska is a low-priority target for Democrats compared with genuinely competitive Senate races elsewhere. National Democratic resources are expected to focus on states such as Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan, where control of the chamber is more plausibly at stake.

That does not mean, however, that Democrats will leave Sullivan unchallenged. They won’t. One strategic possibility is that Democrats may not believe Sullivan is beatable, but may still see value in forcing him to run a fully engaged campaign. By keeping Republican incumbents occupied defending their own seats, Democrats can limit their ability to raise money for, campaign with, or otherwise assist GOP colleagues in more competitive races.

In that sense, even a long-shot challenge could serve a broader national purpose: ensuring that every Republican senator has to tend to his own race — and has less time, money, and political bandwidth to help others. Schumer may not think Peltola can win, but he needs to use her to keep Sullivan busy.