The Cook Political Report’s latest outlook for the 2026 midterm elections shows a fiercely competitive national battlefield, but Alaska is not currently part of it.
All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives will be on the ballot in 2026. According to Cook, 66 of those races are considered even marginally competitive, and just 17 are rated true toss-ups. The House is currently controlled by Republicans, 220–213, with two vacancies.
Alaska’s at-large congressional seat does not appear on Cook’s list of competitive races.
Republican Rep. Nick Begich III, who defeated Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola in the 2024 general election, is rated as being in a strong position heading into the 2026 cycle. In a December 2025 analysis, Cook described Begich as “in the driver’s seat,” citing Alaska’s red-leaning partisanship and the lack of a top-tier Democratic challenger.
While Anchorage Democrat Matt Schultz has filed to challenge Begich, analysts do not consider the race competitive at this stage. Schultz has little statewide name recognition and no established fundraising base. He is a hardline Anchorage leftist. Peltola, meanwhile, has not declared a rematch and has been publicly speculated as a potential candidate for governor or US Senate instead.
Under Cook’s framework, Alaska’s rating reflects a seat that is not currently competitive but could shift under unusual circumstances. The race is not listed among the Toss-Up, Lean, or even Likely Democratic categories in the national House outlook.
Alaska’s election calendar includes a June 1, 2026 filing deadline, followed by the primary election on Aug. 18.
Nationally, Cook’s most competitive House races are concentrated in Arizona, California, Pennsylvania, and Washington.
In Arizona, multiple districts are shaping up as battlegrounds. Rep. David Schweikert’s decision to run for governor has opened a crowded field in his district. Schweikert narrowly defeated Democrat Amish Shah in 2024 by fewer than four percentage points, or about 16,500 votes. Shah is running again, joined by more than 20 others who have filed statements of interest.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District is also expected to be competitive. Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is seeking reelection as nine Democrats have filed statements of interest. In 2024, voters in the district backed Donald Trump for president while simultaneously electing Democrat Ruben Gallego to the U.S. Senate, underscoring its swing nature. Arizona’s primary election is scheduled for Aug. 4.
In Washington state, the 3rd Congressional District remains a high-profile contest. Republican state Sen. John Braun, the Senate minority leader, is challenging Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. Perez first won the seat in 2022 by defeating Republican Joe Kent and repeated the victory in 2024.
Cook’s overall outlook suggests Republicans enter the 2026 cycle with a narrow House majority and a relatively limited number of truly competitive seats — with Alaska, for now, remaining off the list of congressional battlegrounds.
3 thoughts on “Cook Political Report puts Begich race in ‘not competitive’ category”
I am hoping that Anchorage Assembly Chair Christopher Constant runs. The more people are exposed to his politics and profoundly arrogant personality, the sooner his political career can end. And that would be good for everyone.
The last time Constant ran for a federal office … Santa Claus got more votes. Not kidding. A real person named Santa Claus from North Pole, AK got more votes.
Also, this article is kinda lame. The race hasn’t even started yet. Probably will in 6 months or so. The Dems have plenty of $. They don’t need much time to ramp up. They will wait and learn the R’s weaknesses and attack. The opposite of the R strategy.