Alex Gimarc: The tax cuts missing from Democrats’ affordability math

By ALEX GIMARC

Oct. 28, 2026 – One of the affordability arguments made by Mary Peltola’s and Bill Hill’s cheerleaders and associated PACs is blaming everything done by the Trump Administration to jack up costs here in Alaska. They typically cite two things: increased fuel prices due to the war in Iran and increased health care costs due to the ending of Obamacare subsidies.

But they never, ever mention the tax cuts passed last year as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill, Jul 4, 2025.  This legislation passed three substantial tax cuts that hit most people who work or used to work.

First, the no taxes on tips provision, estimated to save those who get tips around $1,300/year.  Second is the no taxes on overtime, estimated somewhere between $1,000 – $1,850/year. Finally, the provision that stops taxes on Social Security payments saved seniors in the neighborhood of $3,000/year.

All of these tax cuts were passed exclusively with Republican votes in congress.  Every single democrat in congress voted against them.  All three of them expire in December, 2028. Neither Mary Peltola nor Bill Hill mention the tax cuts in any of their campaign materials in support or opposition. Should either get elected, expect them to expire and your taxes to increase.

In contrast, the two cost increases the Democrats are hanging their hats on are quantifiable.  Depending on whose numbers you believe, the increase in vehicular fuel costs averages some $885 – 2,000/year, with the higher end kicking in the more mileage you put on your vehicle. Democrat-funded anti-Dan Sullivan and anti-Nick Begich ads claim the increase in Obamacare premiums run $1,800. The actual yearly increase in 2026 was just under $1,500.

Contrast the two sets of numbers. On the one hand, we have three tax cuts active for at least three years that could total over $6,100/year while the Nuclear Winter of Republican affordability cost increases are a whopping $3,300/year, just over 50% of the tax cut amount.

Worse, these democrats, being democrats, actively want those tax cuts to expire, further decreasing our ability to keep our own money.

Even the reasons for the cost increases are arguable.  The increase in vehicular fuel costs is not due to the war in Iran at all, as oil and natural gas production is running near capacity.  It is rather refinery capacity, a little fact the democrats and their mouthpieces never seem to mention.

The US used to have more refineries. In 1980, there were nearly 320 of them, most of them little guys.  Today, that number is down to 130, most if not all of them running at capacity.  Blue states like California are busily trying to close them down, shutting two of them in the last year alone.  These closures removed about 2% of total capacity from US refineries, keeping already high fuel prices high.

Democrats closed refineries, limited the nationwide ability to refine vehicular fuel, and are blaming the high prices on Trump, the Iran war, and congressional Republicans who support the war.  And yes, as usual, Republican messaging on this has been awful.

The increase Obamacare insurance premiums is entirely due to a standoff between Senate Republicans and democrats. These were subsidized by legislation passed during Covid, starting Mar 2021 as a temporary Covid-era deal.  That subsidy expired Dec 2025 and the senators could never agree upon an extension. The increased premiums impact around 25.500 Alaskans.

What do we have? On the one hand, three substantial tax cuts that touch most working and retired Alaskans, none of which congressional Democrats or any Democrat candidate support. On the other, we have expiration of a temporary subsidy that Senate democrats refused to renew coupled with the logical result of shutting down refinery capacity in blue states (Cali).

Which future do you choose? Keeping more of your own money? Or futzing around looking for someone to blame? Easy choice from here, though as usual, your mileage will vary.

The game today is to turn out and vote. Vote early. Get your friends and family out to vote. Our future is in our hands.

Alex Gimarc lives in Anchorage since retiring from the military in 1997. His interests include science and technology, environment, energy, economics, military affairs, fishing and disabilities policies. His weekly column “Interesting Items” is a summary of news stories with substantive Alaska-themed topics. He was a small business owner and Information Technology professional.