Poll: Bernadette Wilson surges among Alaska Republicans, Kreiss-Tomkins holds a narrow edge in governor’s race

By SUZANNE DOWNING

Oct. 1, 2026 – Republican Bernadette Wilson has more than doubled her support since the August primary and now leads all GOP rivals in Alaska’s governor’s race, according to a new poll from Cygnal, which has had credible polling results in previous campaign cycles in Alaska. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a narrow lead overall, but within the margin of error.

The survey, conducted Sept. 24-27 among 502 likely general election voters, found Wilson at 24%, up from the more than 10% she received in the certified primary. Kreiss-Tomkins sits at 44%, short of a majority, with 15% of voters undecided.

Wilson’s closest Republican rival, Treg Taylor, registered 9%, putting her 15 points ahead of him, and moving him ahead of Dave Bronson, who has stagnated at 8%, the same share he won in the primary. Combined, the three Republicans total 41%, three points behind Kreiss-Tomkins.

Wilson’s gains are concentrated among Republicans, 46% of whom back her, according to the memo. She also wins 47% of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024, compared with 14% each for Bronson and Taylor.

Cygnal said Wilson leads her Republican opponents in every gender, age, education and regional group it measured. She reaches 30% in South Central Alaska and 34% among women 55 and older. She also outpolls Bronson and Taylor combined, 24% to 17%.

“Wilson is the only Republican with a realistic path to victory,” Cygnal pollster Mitchell Brown wrote in the memo.  It has a margin of error of 4.37%.

The executive summary says:

“Bernadette Wilson has emerged from a crowded primary as the clear Republican frontrunner for Governor, more than doubling her primary share from 10% to 24% and leading her closest Republican rival by +15 points. With Republicans combining for 41% to Kreiss-Tomkins’ 44% and a right-leaning undecided bloc, Wilson is the only Republican with a realistic path to victory.

“Wilson Has More Than Doubled Her Primary Share

• +14 points since August. Wilson won 10% in the certified primary and now draws 24%.
• Her rivals have stalled. Bronson took 8% in the primary and still sits at 8% today.
• A broad-based lead. Wilson tops every other Republican in every gender, age, education, and regional group, reaching 30% in South Central and 34% among women 55+.

“Wilson Is the Only Republican With a Chance

• Republicans are choosing Wilson. She wins 46% of Republicans, nearly triple Bronson (16%) or Taylor (13%).
• The Trump coalition is with her. Wilson wins 47% of 2024 Trump voters, to 14% each for Bronson and Taylor.
• She outpolls her rivals combined, 24% to 17% for Bronson and Taylor together.

The poll suggests the race may be closer than Kreiss-Tomkins’ lead indicates. Among undecided voters, 55% prefer the Republican candidate for Congress and 60% voted for Trump in 2024. One in five Republicans (20%) remains undecided, which Cygnal describes as room for the GOP to consolidate behind a single candidate. This, then, becomes a matter of turnout, which will depend on everything from voter enthusiasm, weather, and whether the Alaska Republican Party can manage a get-out-the-vote effort competently this year.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.37 percentage points. It was conducted by live phone calls and text-to-web messages, and the results were weighted to reflect likely general election voters.

Cygnal is a Republican polling firm, and the memo was addressed to “interested parties.” The memo was circulated on social media by Brown himself.