Bob Griffin: Ranking 1,2,3 in the governor’s race is the only path to a Republican winning

By BOB GRIFFIN

Sept. 29, 2028 – Winning the governor’s race won’t be easy. But it’s also not as hard as some have implied.

I’ve run the numbers and a Republican can win the Governor’s race — if we unite and rank our favorites 1,2,3.

The remaining Republican gubernatorial candidates have remarkably similar ideological perspectives. Some may have some flaws – but none of those flaws come close to the irreversible harm a far-left Governor could wreak in four years.

Alaska is a Red state, Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 2 to1. President Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024.

If we can duplicate the 2024 13-point Republican margin in the gubernatorial election, with a normal turnout for a gubernatorial election year, a Republican candidate would win with 54% of Republican voters rank all three Republican candidates.

The percentage of voters needed to rank 1,2,3 goes up if the vote differential is lower. With 10% more Republican votes – 64% of voters would need to rank 1,2,3. With an 8% differential we would need 71% participation. With a 6% differential we would need 73% to rank 1,2,3.

I’m a staunch supporter of YES on Ballot Measure 2 and I’m very much looking forward to seeing ranked choice voting going away. Like it or not though, we need to use ranked choice voting one more time to prevent a disastrous outcome for the state.

It won’t be easy, but it’s certainly not impossible. If we focus these last few weeks before the election to get the word out, we can pull it off. Alaskan voters are well known nationwide for producing improbable election results.

We can do this — if we are united in ranking our favorite Republicans 1.2,3 and encourage likeminded Alaskans to do the same.

Assumptions: Voter turnout of 167,000 matching 2022 Governor’s race. Republican voter distribution matches recent AARP poll.

Bob Griffin is on the board of Alaska Policy Forum and served on the Alaska Board of Education and Early Development.

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