Negative ads keep pounding Sen. Dan Sullivan, but there’s still no viable opponent for ’26

A wave of unusually heavy negative advertising has hit Alaska’s airwaves targeting US Sen. Dan Sullivan, despite the fact that no legitimate Democrat has formally launched a campaign against him.

From Dec. 2 through Dec. 7, a total of 11 political advertisements related to Alaska’s 2026 US Senate race aired statewide and in the state’s major media markets. Seven of those ads carried a negative tone aimed directly at Sullivan, according to ad monitoring data reviewed by The Alaska Story.

Overall spending during the period totaled roughly $102,000, a slight decrease from the prior week’s approximately $116,000. But the balance of messaging skewed heavily negative: Negative ads outspent positive ads by roughly a 6-to-1 margin.

The negative advertising focused on trade, energy, health care, inflation, and taxation, with nearly all of the spending placed on connected television. In total, negative expenditures reached $86,706, all of it on CTV platforms.

By contrast, positive ads, while fewer and significantly lower in total spending, emphasized Sullivan’s role in protecting Medicaid, supporting Medicare, and backing premium tax credits. Several of the positive messages encouraged viewers to “thank Dan Sullivan” for strengthening health care programs.

The negative campaigns were funded by a collection of outside groups, including Duty and Honor, Majority Forward, and The 907 Initiative, all groups aligned with Democrats. Majority Forward alone ran multiple variations of ads attacking Sullivan on health care, character, inflation, and trade, with spots airing statewide in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau. The 907 Initiative also ran multiple ads criticizing Sullivan on inflation, trade, energy, and health care across the same markets.

Majority Forward has received funding from the shadowy Arabella Advisors network (now Sunflower Strategies), including the Tides Foundation, Tides Advocacy, the NEO Philanthropy Action Fund, the Sixteen Thirty Fund, the Environmental Defense Action Fund, the American Health Care Association, Fair Share, Intercontinental Exchange PAC, the National Education Association, and bankrupt cryptocurrency firm FTX, according to Influence Watch.

Duty and Honor’s “You Name It” ad similarly targeted Sullivan on trade and health care and ran statewide in Alaska’s three largest media markets.

On the positive side, American Advancement Inc., One Nation, and the Senate Opportunity Fund sponsored supportive ads. American Advancement ran two pro-Sullivan spots in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau highlighting health care and tax issues. One Nation’s ad aired exclusively on CTV in Anchorage, while the Senate Opportunity Fund placed ads in Anchorage and Fairbanks.

The disparity in tone and spending is notable given the absence of an announced Democratic challenger in the race. No credible Democratic candidate has filed or launched a formal campaign against Sullivan for 2026, yet outside groups are already investing heavily in attack messaging more than two years before the election; many are hoping former congresswoman Mary Peltola will come into the race in early 2026.

While positive messages exist, they are being drowned out by an aggressive and early barrage of negative advertising aimed at Alaska’s conservative senator, long before voters have been presented with an actual opponent.

Sullivan faces two currently declared opponents: Ann Diener, a Democrat, and Richard Grayson of the Green Party. Neither has reported any income to their campaigns to the Federal Election Commission. Sullivan has $4,760,088.63 cash on hand in his campaign account.