By SUZANNE DOWNING
March 3, 2026 – As war risk ripples across the Middle East and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is currently disrupted, global LNG markets are tightening again, and Alaska’s gas export project suddenly looks less speculative and more strategic.
According to US Department of Energy data, American developers signed 40 million tons per annum of LNG under long-term sale and purchase agreements in 2025, equal to about 5.2 billion cubic feet per day. That’s the strongest contracting year since 2022. But since those contracts were inked, geopolitical realities have shifted dramatically.
Roughly 20% of the world’s LNG supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime chokepoint bordered by Iran and Oman. Any sustained blockage or security threat in that corridor immediately tightens global supply and drives Asian buyers to seek alternatives.
Alaska sits outside that risk entirely. Unlike Qatar and other Middle Eastern exporters, Alaska LNG cargoes have no similar chokepoints. Unlike Gulf Coast LNG, Alaska shipments to Asia also would not require passage through the Panama Canal, which has faced its own capacity constraints.
In times of global uncertainty, those factors carry premium value.
South Korea, Taiwan, and India, all heavily dependent on imported LNG, are now racing to secure stable, long-term supply. Energy security is an immediate and existential threat.
Alaska already has memoranda of understanding and preliminary commercial alignment with entities in South Korea and Taiwan. Those relationships take on new weight in a constrained market.
For countries like Taiwan in particular, which faces its own security pressures from China, supply diversification is critical. Stable US LNG from Alaska is fundamentally different from cargoes transiting contested waters.
The 2025 surge in sale and purchase agreements nationwide demonstrates that 20-year LNG contracts remain the industry standard. About 95 percent of volumes signed this year were long-term agreements, most indexed to Henry Hub pricing.
Four major Gulf Coast projects reached final investment decision in 2025, adding 7.2 Bcf/d of capacity expected online between 2029 and 2031:
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Woodside Energy Louisiana LNG Phase 1
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Venture Global LNG CP2 Phase 1
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NextDecade Rio Grande Phase 2
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Sempra Infrastructure Port Arthur Phase 2
But Gulf Coast projects still face longer shipping routes to Asia and potential Panama Canal constraints.
Alaska LNG, led by the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation and private developer Glenfarne, targets a similar in-service window. The difference now is geopolitical urgency. LNG buyers want reliability and the market is now dominated by having one-fifth of global LNG jeopardized by instability in a single narrow waterway.
Alaska’s value proposition rests on three pillars: Vast stranded North Slope gas reserves, proximity to North Asia, and regulatory, tax, and political stability.
The question is whether Alaska’s project can move decisively while that stability carries a premium.
