By Suzanne Downing 
Driven by Nuna and Pikka projects
Alaska is on track for its biggest single-year jump in crude oil production since the 1980s, according to a new US Energy Information Administration forecast released Nov. 19. The agency projects the state will average 477,000 barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 55,000 barrels per day, or 13%, over 2025. If realized, it would mark Alaska’s highest production level since 2018 and a reversal of decades-long decline.
The EIA attributes the growth almost entirely to two new North Slope developments reshaping the state’s energy landscape: ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project and the Santos/Repsol Pikka Phase 1 development.
Nuna, which quietly began producing in December 2024, is expected to peak at roughly 20,000 barrels per day. Pikka Phase 1, already considered one of the most consequential North Slope projects in years, is forecast to reach 80,000 barrels per day at peak output by mid-2026. For perspective, that single project will represent nearly 20% of all Alaska oil produced in 2025.
The performance of new wells demonstrates how transformative these fields are. Their average output of around 480 barrels of oil equivalent per day surpasses 78% of Alaska’s legacy wells, most of which produced under 400 BOE/d in 2023.
The projected upswing arrives as renewed momentum builds around an even larger North Slope opportunity: AK-LNG, the long-discussed gas pipeline and LNG export terminal that would commercialize the region’s vast, stranded natural gas reserves. State officials and federal partners have recently revived discussions on permitting and financing frameworks, encouraged in part by growing Asian LNG demand and a more development-friendly federal posture.
If the EIA’s forecast holds, 2026 could mark a pivotal year for Alaska’s budget, jobs, the economy and the viability of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System itself.