By SUZANNE DOWNING
Anchorage is heading toward a high-stakes collision between labor negotiations, tax policy, and classroom stability, all set to converge on Jan. 27.
That is the day the Anchorage Assembly will hold a public hearing and vote on Mayor Suzanne LaFrance’s proposed $12 million special property-tax levy for the Anchorage School District, and also the day binding arbitration begins between the Anchorage School District and the Anchorage Education Association, which represents about 2,830 teachers.
If the Assembly votes yes on Jan. 27, the school tax will be placed on the April municipal ballot that goes out to voters in mid-March. Meanwhile, the arbitration hearing runs January 27–29, determining whether teachers get large pay increases or remain under the district’s more modest offer. The district has described a structural deficit of more than $77 million.
At the same time, the legal clock is ticking toward a potential teachers strike.
Under Alaska law, once the arbitrator was selected on Nov. 13, 2025, a 90-day cooling-off period began. That means the earliest legal strike date is Feb. 12, just two weeks after the arbitration hearing and just before municipal ballots are in the mail.
Although no strike has been formally called, the union is preparing.
The AEA has said it plans to hold a membership vote on strike authorization in mid- or late-January. That vote would not trigger an automatic walkout, but it would allow union leaders to call one if arbitration does not produce a contract they accept.
Organizers have been working through school-site representatives, such as strike captains, to build internal readiness for a possible strike, a standard union tactic when labor talks reach a breaking point.
The last time Anchorage teachers went on strike was 1994.
The dispute centers on teacher pay, staffing shortages, and classroom conditions — all against the backdrop of inflation, housing costs, and state funding limits.
The union’s final offer called for salary increases of:
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8% in year one
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7% in year two
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6% in year three
The district countered with 3% raises each year, plus step increases for experience, roughly 5% total per year for many teachers. District officials have noted that anything higher is financially unsustainable. The union says anything lower will keep driving teachers out.
According to the union, more than 300 educators left the district in the past year, contributing to vacancies, long-term substitutes, and larger class sizes.
Alaska’s average teacher salary is $78,256, ranking 10th nationally, and the average starting salary is $52,451, ranking 9th. But Anchorage teachers say local living costs erase much of that advantage.
Anchorage-area Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows:
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Elementary teachers average about $61,440
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Middle and high school teachers average $74,000–$75,000
Under the current salary schedule, some Anchorage teachers earn well into six figures at the top of the scale, while new teachers are far closer to entry-level wages, the very group most likely to leave.
The mayor’s $12 million school tax proposal now sits squarely inside this labor dispute.
Union leaders argue higher pay is necessary to retain teachers. District leaders say state funding caps and rising health-care costs prevent them from offering more without new revenue. The mayor is asking voters for that new revenue.
If the levy passes in April, taxpayers will foot the bill. If it fails, the district will still be bound by whatever contract the arbitrator orders, leaving budget cuts or layoffs as the only way to pay it.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, longtime AEA President Corey Aist suddenly and inexplicably stepped down in December, in the middle of the standoff. His departure was described as a “retirement,” though it came just weeks before a potential strike.
Aist had warned repeatedly of a retention “crisis” and looming strike action. He was replaced by Christi Sitz, formerly the union’s vice president for communications.
By the end of January, Anchorage will know:
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Whether teachers will get raises closer to 3% or closer to 8%
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Whether the Assembly will send a $12 million school tax to the voters
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Whether union members authorize leaders to call a strike
By mid-February, Anchorage could also face its first teachers strike in more than 30 years, just as voters are receiving ballots that include the very tax increase meant to help pay for the contract.
Everything now hinges on three days of arbitration and one Assembly vote.
