Alberta’s separatist movement gains traction as tensions deepen with Ottawa

The Alberta separatism movement, which has been simmering beneath Canada’s political surface, is showing fresh signs of escalation, with a rally in Edmonton planned for Saturday.

Rooted in economic frustration over oil and gas policies, equalization payments, and what many view as chronic federal overreach from Ottawa, the movement has gained traction since Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured its fourth consecutive federal victory in April 2025.

Polls now show support for independence hovering between 30% and 36%, strongest among United Conservative Party voters and in rural areas. Yet about two-thirds of Albertans still oppose separation, polls show. Unlike Quebec’s sovereignty campaigns, Alberta’s separatist push is primarily economic, not cultural. Some factions even argue for Alberta joining the United States as the 51st state, citing ideological and energy-policy alignment with President Donald Trump’s administration.

Premier Danielle Smith has not endorsed separation but has positioned herself as Alberta’s chief defender against federal policies. Her government has streamlined the legal path toward a referendum and sharpened rhetoric over what she calls Ottawa’s “economic stranglehold.” Though no date has been set for a vote, the pace of developments has accelerated through October:

• On Oct. 4, Alberta Prosperity Project leader Mitch Sylvester described a “siege” from Ottawa’s regulations and British Columbia’s pipeline restrictions, urging supporters to attend a major pro-independence rally scheduled for Oct. 25 at the Alberta Legislature. Around the same time, reports surfaced that some U.S. officials view an independent Alberta as a potential “key energy partner.”
• On Oct. 6, speaking in Montreal, Smith demanded the repeal of nine federal laws she says are “strangling” Alberta’s economy, among them, carbon taxes and emissions caps, and warned that if those demands are ignored, a referendum could come as early as spring 2026. She reiterated a previous deadline tied to the Grey Cup in November for Carney’s government to act on her core conditions, including tidewater access and reform of the equalization formula.
• By Oct. 16, speculation intensified following reports of US State Department meetings discussing Alberta’s future. Business figure Kevin O’Leary publicly speculated that Saskatchewan and Manitoba might join an independent bloc, while analysts predicted a potential declaration of sovereignty as early as mid-November.

Legal and political barriers, however, remain. Under Canada’s Clarity Act, any province seeking independence must win a “clear majority” in a referendum and then enter potentially decade-long negotiations with Ottawa. Additional complications include Native treaties, questions over control of federal lands, and the economic uncertainty of leaving Canada’s fiscal framework.

Former Premier Jason Kenney has called the separatist movement “unpatriotic,” warning it risks damaging Alberta’s investment climate. Yet with rising US interest, the stalled talks with Ottawa, and Smith’s increasingly firm deadlines, a referendum appears more plausible than at any time in recent memory.

Whether Alberta’s independence momentum peaks or fizzles may depend on Carney’s next move. If Ottawa concedes ground on energy and equalization reforms, separatist sentiment could cool. But if federal resistance hardens, support might climb toward 40% and set the stage for a spring 2026 referendum.

The Oct. 25 rally in Edmonton and Smith’s self-imposed Grey Cup (Canadian football league) deadline are the next major flashpoints in Canada’s unfolding national unity debate.