Distraction: Poll drops right after NRSC complaint against Peltola, showing her leading Sullivan

By SUZANNE DOWNING

March 30, 2026 – Just days after a major campaign finance complaint was filed against former US Rep. Mary Peltola alleging personal use of campaign funds, a new poll from Alaska Survey Research claims she is leading the incumbent,  Sen. Dan Sullivan in a hypothetical 2026 matchup. She filed earlier this year against the Republican senator.

The timing of the pol, released shortly after the complaint gained attention, raises questions about whether the survey serves as a counter-narrative to the negative coverage surrounding Peltola.

The Alaska Story reported last week on the complaint filed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which alleges Peltola used campaign funds for personal expenses. The complaint also cites reporting from multiple Alaska media outlets and questions her political intentions during the period when the expenditures occurred. She allegedly used her House campaign fund as a personal slush fund, all while making no effort to actually run for House and pulling down a $400,000 annual salary from Holland & Hart.

Breaking: NRSC files major complaint against Peltola for personal use of campaign funds

Within days of that story circulating, pollster Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research released numbers showing Peltola implausibly ahead in the Senate race.

According to Moore’s poll, Peltola leads Sullivan 46.4% to 40.9%, with 12.7% choosing other candidates in a hypothetical primary-style matchup. Moore described the result as the first time Alaska Survey Research has tested the contest, calling Peltola’s 5.5-point lead “a metric we will track moving forward.”

The poll also simulated ranked-choice voting rounds. In those scenarios, Peltola’s support increased through successive rounds:

• Round 1: Peltola 48.8%, Sullivan 43.5%, Christopher Miklos 5.2%, Ann Diener 2.4%
• Round 2: Peltola 50.4%, Sullivan 43.8%, Miklos 5.9%
• Round 3: Peltola 52.4%, Sullivan 47.6%

Moore also wrote that Peltola maintains “a clear advantage” in favorability ratings, with a 7.8% higher positive rating and a 10.1% lower negative rating compared with Sullivan.

But Moore’s polling has raised eyebrows in past Alaska races for results that leaned more Democratic than eventual outcomes that never came to pass.

In 2014, Moore’s late polling showed Democratic Sen. Mark Begich leading Republican challenger Dan Sullivan by roughly 6–8 points. Sullivan ultimately won by 2.2 points, making the poll off by about eight points in the Democratic direction. It was a bad miss.

In 2018, Moore reported progressive challenger Alyse Galvin ahead of longtime Republican Rep. Don Young, 49% to 48%, shortly before the election. Young went on to win by 6.5 points — a swing of roughly 7.5 points from the poll. Another big miss.

In 2022, Moore projected Gov. Mike Dunleavy would receive 43% in the first round under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system. Dunleavy instead won outright with 50.2%, a difference of more than seven points. That was an embarrassing prediction for Moore.

Moore, whose firm Alaska Survey Research has conducted polling for Democratic causes and campaigns, has long been viewed by some as producing surveys with a left-leaning bias, though his polls are frequently cited in Alaska political coverage.

The release of the new numbers comes amid renewed political attention on Peltola following the NRSC complaint, which alleges questions her compliance with federal campaign finance rules. That complaint remains pending and has not been adjudicated.