Congress is poised to allow the government-manipulated “enhanced” Affordable Care Act premium subsidies to expire at the end of the year, a decision that reflects a conservative approach to not further prop up what is a fundamentally broken system riddled with waste, fraud, and abuse.
The subsidies, expanded during the Covid-19 pandemic and extended through 2025, dramatically increased federal spending on Obamacare by removing income caps and shifting a larger share of premium costs to taxpayers. Those temporary provisions are set to expire on Dec. 31, returning the law to its original structure.
House Republican leadership, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, declined to include a subsidy extension in a partisan health care bill that passed the House on a 216-211 vote. GOP leaders argued that extending the subsidies yet again would pour more federal dollars into a system that has failed to deliver lower costs, broader access, or meaningful competition.
Instead, the Republican bill focused on alternative policies aimed at reducing costs outside the Affordable Care Act, including strengthening employer-sponsored insurance and expanding association health plans. Republican leaders said those approaches address affordability without expanding what they view as an unsustainable entitlement.
Democrats responded by advancing a discharge petition to force a House vote on a separate bill that would provide a clean three-year extension of the enhanced subsidies, with no reforms attached. Four Republicans joined Democrats in signing the petition, allowing it to reach the required 218 signatures.
The maneuver guarantees a future House vote but that will not occur before the Dec. 31 deadline. Under House rules, discharge petitions typically face procedural delays, making it virtually certain the subsidies will lapse, at least temporarily.
The Senate earlier rejected both Democratic proposals for an extension and Republican efforts to tie subsidies to reforms, leaving no legislative path forward before the end of the year.
When the enhanced subsidies expire, premiums for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans are expected to rise sharply in 2026. Supporters of the subsidies warn of large premium increases and potential coverage losses.
Conservatives counter that enrollment growth has been driven largely by government subsidies rather than genuine affordability, and that escalating federal spending has done little to fix persistent problems such as limited provider networks, inflated premiums, and insurer consolidation.
The conservative argument is that Obamacare encourages inefficiency and abuse by shielding consumers from the true cost of coverage while transferring risk to taxpayers.
While a retroactive extension remains possible in early 2026, either through the forced House vote or broader negotiations, Republican leaders say they are unwilling to continue “patching” Obamacare without meaningful changes.
