Is the Musk Ox Coalition being reborn? 2016’s GOP breakaways cast a long shadow over today’s House Minority upheaval

HISTORY DOESN’T ALWAYS REPEAT, BUT SOMETIMES IT RHYMES

Nearly a decade after the “Musk Ox Coalition” upended Republican control in the Alaska House, the outlines of a similar movement appear to be forming again, this time inside a weakened 17-member GOP minority where just 10 lawmakers on Saturday banded together to elect new leadership without the conservatives at the table.

For longtime political observers, the parallels are unmistakable.

On Saturday night, with short notice and two Mat-Su seats still vacant, 10 Republicans met over Zoom and chose Rep. DeLena Johnson as minority leader and Rep. Justin Ruffridge of Soldotna as whip.

Conservative members were sidelined – some didn’t see the meeting notice in time, others objected to organizing before all House Republican seats were filled. Nevertheless, the smaller bloc proceeded, leaving the impression that a new “centrist” power cluster is taking shape at a moment when the party is fractured.

If this sounds familiar, it’s because Alaska has been here before. This is a primer for newcomers about how this may go down.

The first Musk Ox Coalition emerged in 2015, during Alaska’s budget freefall after oil prices collapsed from over $100 per barrel to under $50. With Republicans pushing for spending reductions and Democrats advocating for taxes and PFD restructuring, a small group of moderate Republicans peeled away from their GOP caucus and aligned with Democrats.

It wasn’t a formal caucus. It was a defensive alliance named by Rep. Jim Colver of Palmer, who likened it to musk oxen circling up to protect themselves. In practice, it meant circling up with Democrats and cutting out conservatives.

The founding group included:

• Paul Seaton of Homer, (now unelected, replaced by conservative Rep. Sarah Vance)

• Gabrielle LeDoux of Anchorage (now in court for election fraud)

• Louise Stutes of Kodiak (still in House, aligned with Democrats)

• Jim Colver of Palmer, (unelected and replaced by conservative Rep. George Rauscher)

• Cathy Muñoz of Juneau (unelected, replaced by Democrat Justin Parish)

• (Plus allied independents and Bush Caucus members like Bryce Edgmon and Neal Foster)

Their May 20, 2015 letter to Speaker Mike Chenault was the opening shot, calling for broad-based taxes, PFD reforms, and “comprehensive fiscal solutions” that aligned far more closely with Democratic priorities than Republican ones.

From that point forward, the coalition repeatedly crossed the aisle, eventually joining with Democrats after the 2016 election to form a 22-member majority that installed Bryce Edgmon as Speaker of the House, flipping control to Democrats for the first time in 20 years.

The Alaska Republican Party censured the defectors. Some lost primaries. Others changed party registration. But the impact was lasting: the coalition normalized bipartisan governance in the House and paved the way for every Democratic-led House organization since.

Today, nearly all Musk Ox participants are out of office except:

• Louise Stutes, now firmly aligned with the Democratic majority and a past Speaker;

• Bryce Edgmon, a coalition architect who remains one of the most influential figures in the current Democrat-controlled House, although he is a registered “undeclared.”

Their longevity is a reminder of how disruptive the 2015–2018 crossover was and how it reshaped the institution.

The newest wrinkle is geographic.

Rep. Justin Ruffridge, the freshly minted minority whip, is from Soldotna.

That’s the same hometown as the late Rep. Gary Knopp, one of the leaders of the original breakaway movement who refused to caucus with Republicans after the 2018 elections, helping keep the House in a Democrat-led coalition.

Knopp argued then that Republicans were too divided to govern. Ruffridge is now being cast by some conservatives as echoing that earlier logic: organize with a smaller, more centrist bloc and move forward without the full caucus.

Saturday’s minority reorganization—held with two Mat-Su districts unrepresented—raised eyebrows for exactly this reason. It wasn’t just the process; it was the optics: a small group of moderates acting quickly, with little notice, and sidelining conservatives.

The question practically writes itself:

Are we witnessing the early formation of a new Musk Ox-style bloc, this time inside the minority?

The original Musk Ox Coalition came about because of certain conditions:

• Formed when Republicans were divided

• Prioritized “pragmatism” over party unity

• Cut conservatives out of the coalition-building process

• Ultimately handed power to Democrats

Today’s House Republican minority:

• Is fractured, with conservatives objecting to the process

• Just elected leadership with only 10 of 17 members present

• Did so while two conservative-leaning Mat-Su seats are vacant

• Installed a whip from Soldotna, home of a prior coalition defector

Alaska history doesn’t repeat itself exactly – but it does rhyme, as the saying goes. And the coalition that once undermined a Republican majority may now be echoing inside a minority that is already struggling to hold together.

Whether this new group of 10 becomes the next Musk Ox Coalition remains to be seen. But the similarities are close enough that many longtime watchers of Alaska politics are saying: We’ve seen this movie before, and we recognize the opening scene.

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