State Navigate analytics group calls Eagle River race for Jamie Allard; labor-backed challenger falls short

By SUZANNE DOWNING

Nov. 12, 2026 — State Navigate, a nonpartisan organization tracking state legislative results and forecasts, has called House District 23 for Republican Rep. Jamie Allard, projecting another term for the Eagle River conservative after an expensive effort by organized labor to replace her.

The latest unofficial ranked-choice calculation supplied to The Alaska Story shows Allard surviving a four-candidate contest and finishing comfortably ahead of Democrat Jim Arlington.

In that calculation, Allard begins with 2,889 first-choice votes, or 38.25%. Arlington has 2,136, while Republican-labeled challenger Ruby Jones has 1,992 and Democrat Lee Hammermeister has 521. Another 15 votes went to write-ins.

With approximately 1,200 ballots remaining to be counted, Allard leads by about 750 votes in the first round and roughly 640 votes in an unofficial ranked-choice calculation using the most current cast vote record. Assuming Ruby Jones does not overtake Jim Arlington during the remaining count and subsequent transfers, Arlington would need more than three-quarters of the remaining ballots to count for him in the final round — an advantage exceeding 3-to-1 —  to erase Allard’s lead. So far, no precinct or ballot category has given him that margin. His strongest showing is among the absentee ballots already counted, where he receives approximately 55% of the final-round votes.

After successive eliminations and transfers, Allard finishes with 3,647 votes to Arlington’s 3,006 — a 641-vote advantage and 54.82% of the votes remaining for the two finalists.

For Allard, the projection represents a defeat of the labor-backed challenge that The Alaska Story previously described as a “decoy” operation, similar to the Democrats’ strategy to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan by pushing Gerald Heikes and Decoy Dan — Daniel J. Sullivan of Petersburg.

Jones ran with a Republican label after previously being registered nonpartisan. The Alaska Story’s August reporting placed Jones’ registration change in 2025. Her endorsements included the Anchorage Central Labor Council, AFL-CIO; Employee Political Information Committee; and Laborers’ Local 71.

The big labor support came with big money.

A September disclosure by Putting Alaskans First Committee, whose officers included Alaska AFL-CIO officials, listed $10,000 for digital advertising supporting Jones and $5,000 for advertising opposing Allard. It also listed thousands of dollars for pro-Jones mailers.

The Alaska Story reported in August that sources said unions were pressuring Arlington to withdraw, hoping to consolidate opposition to Allard behind Jones. Arlington remained on the general-election ballot and, in the supplied calculation, outlasted Jones to become Allard’s final opponent.

The political threat was that Jones’ newly adopted Republican label could attract voters in conservative Eagle River while labor organizations surreptitiously supplied support to defeat the Republican incumbent.

“I’m grateful for the confidence Eagle River voters have placed in me. Representing this community is an honor, and I’m ready to work hard in the coming legislative session, stand up for our priorities, and make sure Eagle River has a strong voice in Juneau,” Allard said.

In Eagle River, the effort to displace Allard fell short of State Navigate’s earlier projected outcome.

Allard’s connection to the district predates her legislative service. She was elected to the Anchorage Assembly in April 2020 to represent Chugiak-Eagle River and served until Jan. 17, 2023, when she resigned to enter the Legislature.

Her move to Juneau came through the 2022 election, following the redistricting that created the House district she is now in She has represented District 23 since January 2023 and won reelection in 2024 with approximately 62% of the vote.

The latest projection would give her a third consecutive House term beginning in January, extending a period of elected service to the Eagle River area that began more than six years ago.