By SUZANNE DOWNING
Nov. 12, 2026 — Alaska voters encounter ranked-choice ballots in every legislative and statewide candidate race, but most of those contests are settled without transferring a single vote — even to a second-choice candidate.
In 2024, just eight of the 50 legislative races required ranked-choice redistribution. That was 16% of the races for the Legislature. The other 42, fully 84% of the contests, were decided on first choices.
The US House contest in 2024 also required ranking, bringing the total to nine races. In every one, the candidate leading before redistribution remained ahead afterward. None switched. The first-vote count was:
- Nick Begich (R): ~159,550 votes (48.41%)
- Mary Peltola (D, incumbent): ~152,828 votes (46.37%)
- John Wayne Howe (Alaskan Independence Party): ~13,010 votes (3.95%)
- Eric Hafner (D): ~3,417 votes (1.04%)
But in the end, Begich won with approximately 164,861 votes (51.22%) to Peltola’s 156,985 (48.78%).
Even with such a costly and provably flawed system, Alaska voters chose to retain ranked-choice voting in the recent election, rejecting a ballot measure that would have repealed it.
But the question remains: How much complexity and administrative expense should accompany a runoff mechanism that most races never need?
Under Alaska’s rules, a candidate who receives more than 50% of first-choice votes wins without redistribution. Otherwise, the lowest candidate is eliminated and ballots transfer to their next continuing choice. Eliminations continue until two candidates remain.
For 2026, a working estimate of six to 10 legislative contests requiring redistribution would put the share at 12% to 20%, leaving 80% to 88% of legislative races decided on first choices.
There are 40 House seats and 10 Senate seats on this year’s ballot. The final number needing ranking will depend on the remaining ballots and whether candidates cross the first-choice majority threshold.
If Republican US Rep. Nick Begich, Democratic US Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins all finish above 50%, none of the three statewide contests would require redistribution.
Under that scenario, six to 10 of the 53 legislative and statewide contests, or roughly 11% to 19% of the remaining races, would use the runoff rounds.
In the results reported after Tuesday’s update, Peltola had about 49%, Begich 48.9% and Kreiss-Tomkins 49.9%. It appears unlikely that they will need runoff votes.
The division released an updated cast-vote record, or CVR, containing 9,144 additional ballots. About 5,600 are newly counted ballots also reflected in the division’s updated first-choice totals; roughly 3,500 were previously counted, mostly rural ballots whose rankings had not yet been included in the CVR.
That leaves approximately 6,400 counted ballots still outside the ranking data. An unofficial ranked-choice calculation using only ballots in the updated CVR now puts Mary Peltola above 50%, leading Sen. Dan Sullivan by 708 votes. Adding the known first-choice votes from the remaining ballots expands her estimated advantage to about 3,100 votes, although their full rankings remain unknown.
An analysis of the known votes right now puts Ryan Berry ahead of Cathy Tilton in Senate District M and Doug Massie ahead of Kevin McCabe in House District 30. In House District 28, Elexie Moore could move ahead of Stephen Wright by six votes, as things stand now.
The Division of Elections has scheduled its official ranked-choice tabulation for Nov. 18, fully 15 days after Election Day.
9 thoughts on “A statewide runoff system, but few runoffs: Most Alaska races never reach ranked-choice redistribution”
Get rid of the Jungle Primary, regardless what you do with RCV. This whole 💩💩 will evaporate as the first round choice will likely provide a winner. In the event of another Wally Hickel AIP-type candidacy, then RCV can do what it is intended to do: Provide a majority winner.
The main purpose of RCV is to exclude a closed primary. It was originally designed to keep Lisa Murkowski in the game up to the general election. And it worked. Ask Joe Miller. Ask Kelly Tshabaka. Otherwise, Lisa Murkowski would have been long gone. RCV has morphed into something more dramatic for Democrats. Look at the number of billboards around Alaska …..”No on 2.”
Probably 5:1 over Yes on 2. Huge outside money spent to keep Alaskans brainwashed by untruths, and keep electing Democrats. 48 other states are smart enough to make RCV illegal. What happened to Alaska,?
The rules of RCV are clear but Republicans don’t seem to understand strategy. RCV should benefit each party equally.
Tell this to Republican idiot and sour grapes Dave Bronson.
Marla, Lisa beat Joe Miller in 2010, a decade before Alaska adopted RCV. You don’t know what you’re talking about.
If Prop 2 had been only a straight up “Repeal Ranked Choice Voting” proposition with nothing else appended to it, it would have passed and we would have thrown it out. But somehow, some “genius” added the thing into it about “outside money”, and people fell for it. My daughter and her husband fell for it. They said that if it weren’t for Prop 2 allowing outside or “dark money” into the equation, they would have voted “YES” and “so would many others, and Prop2 would have won hands down”, they said. And honestly? I had a hard time arguing that aspect of Prop 2 with the naysayers because I didn’t know much about it until it was too late, and swing voters had already gotten swayed by the “Vote No On 2” propaganda. I just told the “Vote No people” that “it was just “smoke and mirrors”, so don’t be fooled by it”. So, NEXT TIME, can’t we just have a STRAIGHT UP VOTE on getting rid of the cursed thing?? You can explain it to me as to why that info about outside money wasn’t REALLY about what the Left claimed about it, but obviously, it didn’t matter. They took that extra language and TWISTED IT and beat our butts on it yet again!
KC Nye, excellent points. From my understanding Phil Izon (the person behind the first Repeal measure that narrowly lost in 2024 by 743 votes) was ready for 2026 Round 2. But then another group (affiliated with the Alaska State GOP?) initiated their own Repeal effort and Izon withdrew his rather than have two measures vying for petition signatures creating confusion. Izon has said he is ready for Round 3 come 2028 and he plans to only seek to repeal RCV. Hopefully his effort will not get interference from another competing Repeal group this time around.
KC Nye is 100% spot on. The last 6 weeks of tv political ads emphasized that exact point. Alaskans bought it hook, line and sinker, when in fact, Dark Money from outside Alaska paid for RCV, Mary Peltola, and JKT. And look what all that money got………..
We totally should put a measure on the ballot to repeal ranked choice voting! Go back to the days when politicians could win with just 35% or 40% of the vote! Like Tony Knowles, with 41%! Like Wally Hickel, with 38%! NORTH TO THE FUTURE!!!