National shift toward Republicans is worrying Democrats, which see their numbers shrinking

In spite of big turnouts at No Kings protests around the country on Saturday, a major nationwide shift in voter registration from Democrats to Republicans between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections has helped reshape the political landscape. That’s according to a detailed analysis published by The New York Times.

The fawning news media coverage of No Kings is masking the real issue: The findings from the liberal New York Times, based on official voter rolls compiled by the analytics firm “L2,” cover 30 states and Washington, D.C. and represent about 80% of the US electorate.

The data shows a decisive realignment that contributed to Republican victories in the 2024 election, including Donald Trump’s sweep of all seven battleground states and his popular vote win.

The Numbers
The Democrats are sagging. Between 2020 and 2024, the Democratic Party lost roughly 2.1 million registered voters, a decline of about 7% across the states that track party affiliation. Over the same period, the Republican Party gained about 2.4 million.

That represents a net swing of 4.5 million voters toward the GOP, which is the largest such registration shift in at least a decade.

In 2020, Democrats held a national registration edge of about five percentage points over Republicans, according to Pew Research. By late 2024, that gap had narrowed to just one point, and it has continued to shrink through 2025.

The trend was broad-based, appearing across all 30 states that track party affiliation, but was especially pronounced in several key regions:

• Pennsylvania: The Democratic registration advantage was nearly erased, with about half of the party’s lost voters re-registering as Republicans.
• Nevada: Republicans surpassed Democrats in total registrations for the first time in nearly 20 years. The GOP gained twice as many new voters under age 35 as Democrats.
• Arizona: Significant erosion in traditionally Democratic, Latino-heavy areas helped secure Trump’s 2024 win.
• Florida: Continued Republican gains transformed the state from battleground to solid red; independents also trended Republican.
• North Carolina: Democratic advantages narrowed sharply, even in urban and suburban regions.
• Nationally: Every state with party registration data showed Republican growth, excluding the 20 states that do not record partisan affiliation, such as Texas and California.

The registration data and exit polls indicate that the partisan shifts reflect deeper changes in voter coalitions:

• Young Voters (Under 45): Democrats’ share of new registrations dropped from 66% in 2018 to 48% in 2024. Republicans now attract a majority of new younger registrants.
• Men: Democratic support among newly registered male voters fell from 49% in 2020 to 39% in 2024.
• Latinos and Working-Class Voters: Trump’s 2024 performance improved by 28 points among Latinos overall and by 41 points among Latino men, compared with 2020. Working-class voters (earning under $100,000) shifted from supporting Biden by 13 points in 2020 to backing Trump by 4 points in 2024.
• Unaffiliated Voters: Registrations with no party affiliation rose nationwide, but most new independents leaned Republican in voting and switching behavior.

The data suggests a deepening structural challenge for Democrats, driven by dissatisfaction over issues like the economy, immigration, and cultural policies. The shift preceded and amplified the 2024 election results, which saw 63.9% voter turnout, the second-highest in a century. The results tilted decisively Republican.

In response, the Democratic National Committee launched a voter registration drive in September targeting 1.6 million potential new voters. However, early results show the GOP maintaining momentum. In New Jersey, for instance, 2025 registration figures showed +10,000 new Republicans versus -2,000 Democrats in the first half of the year.

Unless the Democratic Party can re-engage working-class and younger voters, it could face ongoing headwinds heading into the 2026 midterms and beyond.

Alaska was not part of the New York Times/L2 voter registration analysis because most Alaska voters register as “Undeclared” or “Nonpartisan,” with smaller shares belonging to parties such as the Alaskan Independence Party or the Libertarian Party.

However, modeled data from study indicates that Alaska followed the broader national trend, showing a slight net Republican gain in estimated voter alignment between 2020 and 2024.