‘Rank the red’ is a slogan, but not a strategy. Alaska’s election history proves it

By SUZANNE DOWNING

Sept. 6, 2026 – “Rank the red” is a zombie strategy making another appearance in Alaska Republican circles, promoted as a simple solution to the complications created by ranked-choice voting.

The slogan tells Republican voters to rank every Republican candidate before considering anyone else. On its face, it sounds logical: If one Republican is eliminated, the voter’s ballot transfers to another Republican. This only happens when the also-ran Republicans refuse to withdraw and rank the leading Republican.

It’s complicated. Alaska’s short experience with ranked-choice voting shows that “rank the red” is far from a guarantee of victory, even in a state where more than 54% voted for Donald Trump (no ranking needed.)

Alaskans approved the current election system in 2020 and first used ranked-choice voting in a statewide general election during the 2022 special election for Congress after the death of Congressman Don Young. Under the system, voters may rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority (50+1) of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and the ballots cast for that candidate transfer to the next preferred candidate.

The crucial word is “may.” Voters are not required to rank every candidate. They may vote for one candidate and stop. Most Republicans do that because they want to vote their values, not settle for less.

Across roughly 112 federal, statewide, and legislative contests conducted under Alaska’s system from 2022 through 2024, only three produced a winner who had not been leading after the first-choice count. All three occurred in state House races in November 2022, none in 2024.

In House District 11, Republican Julie Coulombe initially trailed independent Walter Featherly. Republican Ross Bieling was eliminated, and enough of his voters ranked Coulombe next to edge her ahead.

In House District 15, Democrat Denny Wells led the first count with 46.6%, while Republicans Tom McKay and David Eibeck split the Republican vote. After Eibeck was eliminated, McKay received enough transferred votes to win by four votes. The official Alaska election report showed Wells with 3,379 first choices, McKay with 2,812 and Eibeck with 1,026 before the ranked tabulation.

In House District 18, Republican David Nelson led the first round while Democrats Cliff Groh and Lyn Franks divided the Democratic vote. After Franks was eliminated, Groh moved ahead and won with 51.9%.

Only about 2% to 3% of Alaska’s RCV races in 2022 through 2024 resulted in a genuine come-from-behind victory. Looking only at the approximately 22 races that required additional tabulation, the figure rises to roughly 14%. Even within that narrower group, the first-choice leader still won most of the time.

Republican messaging after the 2022 election often implied that Alaska’s biggest electoral problem was conservative voters failing to rank additional Republicans. The evidence does not support that. In 2024, Republicans were told to not rank, and instead pressure was put on the also-ran Republicans to drop out and let the one Republican get on the path to victory.

Nick Begich led the initial count in the 2024 congressional election and remained ahead through the final round. Ranked-choice voting did not reverse the order established by first choices.

National research shows the same general pattern. FairVote, an organization that promotes ranked-choice voting, has estimated that only about 4% of RCV elections produce a winner who trailed after the first round. Its analysis of Alaska’s first congressional special election noted that Peltola began with a nine-point lead and retained it after Begich’s votes were redistributed. FairVote describes come-from-behind victories as rare.

Maine provides the country’s most prominent federal example of a reversal.

In 2018, Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin led Democrat Jared Golden in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, 46.3% to 45.6%, after first choices were counted. Two independent candidates were then eliminated. Golden received a much larger portion of their transferred votes and won the final count, 50.6% to 49.4%. Ballotpedia’s tabulation records the first-round and final-round totals.

That race demonstrates what ranking is designed to do: allow a candidate with broader secondary support to defeat a candidate with a narrow plurality.

But Golden’s subsequent victories do not provide additional examples of that reversal. In his 2022 rematch with Poliquin, Golden began with a four-point first-choice lead and expanded it after independent Tiffany Bond was eliminated. In 2024, Golden again led the first count and remained ahead after the tabulation. The Associated Press reported that the 2024 count confirmed his initial lead.

Maine and Alaska therefore tell a similar story: Rankings can change a close election, but most of the time they do not change which candidate finishes first.

That brings Alaska Republicans back to the strategic question. It is different this time because, like with Palin in the race in 2022, there are Republicans for governor who have refused to concede to the leader.

In 2022, the Alaska Republican Party promoted “rank the red” while Sarah Palin jumped in on the congressional race and she and Nick Begich competed against each other and Democrat Mary Peltola. Palin and Begich nominally encouraged their voters to rank the other Republican, but Palin’s campaign continued attacking Begich. Palin also called on Begich to withdraw, even though he had filed first.

The slogan could not repair the political damage. Enough Begich voters either ranked Peltola ahead of Palin or did not rank Palin at all. Peltola, meanwhile, entered the tabulation with the largest and most unified first-choice coalition. Contemporary reporting confirmed that the Alaska Republican Party and both major Republican candidates promoted some version of “rank the red,” even as the candidates continued their rivalry.

By 2024, the approach had changed. The Republican Party’s slogan was no longer “rank the red.” The operative message became “drop if not on top”:

Republicans who finished behind the leading Republican in the primary were encouraged by the party to withdraw and allow the party’s strongest finisher to face Peltola without another major Republican dividing first-choice support.

Republicans consolidated behind Nick Begich. He led the first count and won the election. An analysis of the strategic shift noted that “rank the red” had largely been replaced by an effort to consolidate the general-election field after the primary.

In 2026, Democrats have demonstrated that they learned from the Republican consolidation strategy. After the gubernatorial primary, Tom Begich left the race and backed first-place Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, reducing the likelihood that Democratic first-choice votes will be divided in November.

Republicans, by contrast, have no clear statewide message or strategy about how voters should approach every race on the November ballot. Some activists are reviving “rank the red,” but not for US Senate or US House — only for governor. The Republican Party leadership seems paralyzed as Nov. 3 hurtles toward us and conservatives are puzzled about which strategy to use in which race. My prediction: This won’t end well for Republicans in November.

Suzanne Downing is founder and editor of The Alaska Story and is a longtime Alaskan.